Syed Ata Hasnain
Highlights
- 2021 saw rapidly changed geopolitics which could fundamentally alter the way nations look at emerging threats and future conflicts.
- The intent in 2021 was all about shifting the focus of conflict from one region to another.
- 2022 could see early strains of potential conflicts of the future and in many cases, these could simply be a revival of old conflicts.
2021, the year gone by, bore much similarity to 1919. The latter was a period immediately after the end of the Great War, a year which also saw the mid stage of the Spanish Flu pandemic which caused the death of 50-70 million people worldwide. It was a year which also gave indicators on how the world would look, post a horrendous war which ended a year earlier and caused the worldwide loss of 20 million lives.
In comparison the year 2021 was milder; 5 million people have lost their lives to the Coronavirus pandemic thus far. 2021 also witnessed the end of the war in Afghanistan, the withdrawal of the US and the return of the Taliban, alongside rapidly changing geopolitics which could fundamentally alter the way nations look at emerging threats and future conflicts.
The lesson from the 1918-20 pandemic which the world of today has to remember is that post a debilitating pandemic, it is as much economics as geopolitics which shapes the worldwide security impact. Who can forget the Great Depression of 1929. The events of 1919 revolving around the deliberations and decisions of the Treaty of Versailles initiated the moves towards a potential new geopolitical order; many of the decisions went completely wrong leading to the world being at war, a second time within 20 years.
2022 is already witnessing the third wave of the Coronavirus pandemic and it is generally believed that the variant of the virus is mutating to a weaker strain. While lockdowns may not become so stringent, isolation of patients will prevent normal human activity and possibly once more have serious effects on worldwide economies. An interesting aspect of the comparison of 1919 and 2021 is the fact that while the intent at Versailles 1919 was to find peace after four years of war-weariness, the intent in 2021, driven by the US, was all about shifting the focus of conflict from one region to another; from West-Central Asia to the Indo Pacific. How would this manifest as threats to the world order and in particular India's security concerns through 2022 and beyond?
First, it needs to be remembered that a shift in the centre of gravity of US security concerns, from the Global War on Terror (GWOT) towards containment of China, does not mean that transnational terrorism is no longer of major concern. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan after failing to achieve its true objectives could actually have spurred the forces of extremist ideology.
The relative quiet in the Middle East and the absence of large scale organized terror, except in some pockets, tend to give a false picture. Even the artificial arrangements such as the Abrahamic accords could be papering over many cracks which could emerge if a trigger is caused elsewhere. The ‘elsewhere' could be Central Asia or Europe, and even the larger region of the New Great Game. In other words, the churning witnessed in the Islamic world since the end of the Cold War is unlikely to stabilise so quietly just because of one pressure point being lifted; the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan.
The natural process of the churning in Islam is likely to witness unpredictable nuances which may not be restricted to just acts of terrorist violence. This is a domain for sociologists and politico-strategic thinkers to apply their minds and view the scene with a combination of ideological competition and developing technologies. Who could have predicted a few years ago the effect of today's social media and the information domain on national and international security? The threats which existed pre-pandemic could come bouncing back if 2022 proves to be a year of recovery on the health front while initiating the process of economic recovery.
2022 could therefore see early strains of potential conflicts of the future and in many cases, these could simply be a revival of old conflicts and agendas rather than new ones. Therein lies the danger of the former centres of conflict re-emerging into focus. With the Middle East mostly being the geopolitical and geostrategic centre of international politics in the last many years, it's a toss-up whether the US will be able to disengage and shift focus to the Indo Pacific as easily as it could be imagining.
That is exactly what India has to be wary about. It cannot just detach itself from the significance of its own role in the Middle East and the region of the New Great Game, and go along with the US towards building and shaping the contours of the Indo Pacific. The emerging focus in conjunction with the US is important in terms of India's own security concerns also on its northern borders where it remains alone to battle the Chinese war machine, should the situation move in that direction.
China would most certainly keep the Sino Indian border activated with calibrated actions not necessarily all in the kinetic domain. Its purpose remains the prevention of active Indian involvement in any emerging partnerships for the Indo-Pacific and to keep India rooted to its own security concerns on a difficult border. That is exactly the reason why China is unlikely to move any further on stabilising or settling the Sino Indian border dispute or even look for a short term arrangement which could postpone a settlement to a more conducive time.
India would compulsorily be drawn towards the concerns regarding its northern borders just as it should be. It is not just a case of managing conflict there. It's also a lot to do with its emerging standing in international politics. Excluding it from the high table for Afghanistan and embroiling it in conflict situations in the north is a deliberate ploy to make its role and stature inconsequential. It appears that the Indian leadership has seen through this after its inability to risk remaining engaged with the Taliban at the outset of the Taliban's control of Afghanistan in Aug-Sep 2021.
It has recovered smartly with some deft diplomacy which may even see the heads of state or government of the five Central Asian Republics (CARs) being the guests of honour at the Republic Day celebrations this year. What India has to avoid is getting sucked into the vortex of threats in the north and ignore the west. As already explained it may not be long before reactivation of the pre-pandemic trends emerges. The larger ideological game initiated in Pakistan almost half a century ago cannot be wished away.
The weakening of civil society and the failure of yet another civilian government in Pakistan in no way dilutes threats to India from that direction. The Pakistan deep state is emboldened with perceived success in Afghanistan and is attempting short term gains from it. The attempt to reinitiate and calibrate violence in Kashmir is a manifestation of this. Its confidence will remain high in view of the Chinese dependence to secure Sino-Pak interests in the region which have expanded quite exponentially. Thus India's wide outreach in the Middle East, especially in the Gulf, an effective balance between engaging Iran and Saudi Arabia, keeping a Russian embrace, and fresh initiatives to remain relevant to the Afghanistan stabilisation process are all significant measures which will ensure that it remains an important player in all future deliberations through which the new world order will emerge; the CARs initiative being the latest addition.
Our strategic partnership with the US is on another level and it ensures that India remains wedded to playing its legitimate role in the Indo-Pacific something which could be comparatively a little more distant in comparison to what may re-emerge as traditional threats from the direction they always came from. (The article first appeared in News Nine –Courtesy : https://www.news9live.com/)
(The author is a retired Lieutenant General of the Indian Army)
