Why Pakistanis are against the CPEC? – 1

Dr Shabir Choudhry

London March 26, 2017

Sad thing about the CPEC and its projects is the lack of transparency in the whole matter. If people ask questions they are branded as ‘traitors' and ‘saboteurs' without any considerations to their genuine concerns and apprehensions. People who will pay back this huge loan have right to ask questions. People whose lives will be adversely affected by this mega project also have right to ask questions.

People of all regions need to know what is there for them. They are not interested in what is there for Punjab, what is there for political leaders of Pakistan, and how much profit Pakistani and Chinese businessmen will make; and how banks of China who will become even richer. Even the former Pakistani President and Chief of Pakistan's Peoples Party claimed that ‘commission' is the main motive in building roads.

‘Former president Asif Ali Zardari on Thursday took aim at the incumbent government and alleged that the Sharif duo was only interested in constructing roads to pocket commission'. 1

People of Pakistan need to know what are their financial commitments to China because of the CPEC. What are the terms and conditions of the loan payment? What are the tax concessions offered to China? Will their lorries pay any toll or not? Will there be any tax or custom on the Chinese goods? Who will provide security to the Special Economic Zones where only the Chinese companies will display their goods? Will these Zones also be used as ‘Chinese enclaves' inside Pakistan, as the Chinese staff and their families need to live somewhere. They will need to eat, socialise, their kids need to go to schools etc. Who will provide security to them, most probably the Chinese? Who will pay for the security of these ‘Chinese enclaves'?

What about the maintenance of these projects and who will pay the costs? Has government of Pakistan or they relevant departments considered these matters, if they have then why they are not sharing this information with the people they govern?

It must be noted that the western China which is linked to Gilgit Baltistan is under developed with only 6% of the population. This region does not have much to export. It means vast quantity of goods will come from the developed part of China. Islamabad based Pakistani writer Abdul Majeed, says:

‘a container can be shipped to/from any port in China and Karachi or Dubai for $300-$400 whereas it would cost $5,000-$7,000 to carry it through rails/roads for transit through Pakistani ports. No businessman will shift his cargo from the sea to land route. This is why the transit trade agreement between Pakistan, China, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan that allows the free use of Pakistani ports has been dormant since 1995. Expansion in world trade was only made possible by cheap shipping. Old land routes could not survive the competition. Efforts to revive them by slogans like one road one belt are not likely to succeed'. 2

What does this suggest? The CPEC has some hidden agenda, hence so much secrecy associated with it. If there is secret military and strategic agenda, as I have explained in detail in one long article, then it is foolish to expect others to sit idle and don't do anything.

Increasingly the Pakistani thinking class is getting polarised, some people strongly supporting the CPEC and the other opposing it. Under the available information both sides may not be able persuade the other; and they will continue to hold on to their respective positions. However, another Pakistani from Lahore, Anjum Altaf, who is a fellow at the Consortium for Development Policy Research in Lahore writes:

‘Citizens responsible for the debt liabilities have a right to demand this information and expect it to be provided. What are the reasons for the secrecy? What is there to hide? The numbers that are filtering out in dribs and drabs on guaranteed rates of return are not particularly reassuring. The mere fact that information is not being fully shared is a major cause for doubt. People are naturally apprehensive in the absence of transparency'. He further says, The CPEC will surely change the fortunes of ‘a few thousand individuals in Pakistan. It is unlikely to be a game changer for the Pakistani people – just like the Suez Canal did not'. 3

It will take many years before the whole project completes, in 2030. Some projects under ‘early harvest, especially related to energy may be completed by 2018, because they were designed to produce electricity and help Nawaz Sharif win the next general elections due to be held in 2018. Other projects are facing many hurdles and are many years from completion.

However, the government wanted to reward the previous army Chief for being a ‘good boy' – not toppling the elected government, so to give him credit for the CPEC they started the first caravan under heavy military protection a few weeks before his retirement. Not much economic activity has taken place after that, but the government and the Chinese are already celebrating success of the CPEC, may be for the domestic consumption.

Another Pakistani Samina Tippu, a student at Pakistan's prestigious National Defense University (NDU) researching for Mphil, in her article ‘CPEC Conspiracy Theories of Success and Failure' raises some serious questions.  She expresses her serious concern on:

‘lack of transparency about costing of various projects included in the CPEC has led to all kinds of suspicions of mega corruption, extent of kickbacks, commissions and hidden payments. There are also reports, circulating in Islamabad's diplomatic and development community that Chinese companies are being compelled to sublet contracts to cronies and front-men of “who's who” in Pakistan and built in profits are being added to the cost of projects. 4

Samina Tippu asks how can a mega project of this nature can succeed in 21^st century where there is no transparency; and when it is riddled with allegations of corruption and nepotism. Any criticism by national or international experts is rejected as a ‘conspiracy'. In view of the conspiracy mantra, the vast majority of Pakistanis fail to see the real game plan and interests of the Pakistani elite. They dare not question the elite and what they are doing in name of the national interest. She asks:

‘Will CPEC be able to change the fortune of citizens of this country or western china or will it follow the footprints of Panama and Suez Canals – that became pawns in regional and international power games. Considering the potential sabotage activities of the powers across the fault lines: India and the US one wonders if CPEC's majestic promise will start to fail even before its proper take off'. 5

In view of some Pakistanis the CPEC may remain a fantasy, because the Pakistani leadership lacks ‘sincerity' and ‘patriotism'; and above all they are not immune from the influence of foreign countries. Many times, in the past, good projects were abandoned because of the pressure of the outside powers. Also, there is a serious concern that due to the CPEC Pakistan may lose political and economic sovereignty, even though the army leadership and the civilian government are on the same page on the issues related to the CPEC.

It is also feared that Pakistan will lose its political and economic sovereignty, owing to excessive foreign debt as happened with the owners of Suez Canal and Sri Lanka. However, people of faith and conviction believe that there is always a way forward in the face of any opposition.

Hurmat Ali Shah is also critical of the Pakistan federal government and tries to advance the narrative of Pakistani provinces. He, in his article Deconstructing the ‘conspiracy against CPEC' argument', writes: ‘The Pakistani state has its bag full of tricks to take home its point of concentrating all development in one region of Punjab, and depriving small provinces and downtrodden regions of the country of their basic constitutional right of development'. 6

Balochistan will not get any energy projects; and KPK will get only one in Haripur. All the rest is for Punjab and Sindh; and when the deprived provinces complain, he says they are accused of promoting ‘provincialism', in actual fact, it is ‘federalism'; and all provinces expect to receive equality and fair treatment.

It is sad that any kind of dissent over inequality or wrong doing of the state is suppressed with an iron fist ‘in name of national interest'. In Hurmat Ali Shah's view, this wrong behaviour of the State in name of national interest ‘will create further mistrust', especially when genuine demands of provinces are termed as ‘petty provincialism'. If criticism from critics and provinces persists then they are labelled as traitors and ‘working at behest of enemies of Pakistan'. 7

He further writes: ‘On top of that comes the acrobatics of federal ministers who say at one press-conference that western route is the priority route, while at the other say that both routes will be completed at the same time and still at another say that CPEC will be completed by 2030. Who is making CPEC controversial and who is conspiring against the federal unity of Pakistan'? 8

To avoid further confusion and misunderstandings it is imperative that the Pakistan government make public all the documents related to the CPEC. Without transparency and accountability, mistrust and bitterness can increase which can be harmful to the CPEC and the federation of Pakistan.

Rebellious views from Balochistan

Dr Allah Nazar, at one time, practised medicine and served humanity; but now he is hiding in mountains with a gun in his hand fighting the Pakistani troops. Colin Freeman, who met him and interviewed him writes: ‘The Baloch rebel leader standing in the way of Pakistan's economic goals'. Dr Allah Nazar is ‘very high on Islamabad's long list of wanted men. For a decade and a half, he has been the leader of the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), which campaigns — and kills — for the independence of Pakistan's vast south-western province'. Rebels claim to have killed around ‘2,000 security force members, although the government puts the figure at nearer 1,200'. 9

Lt Gen Aamir Riaz, head of the army's Southern Command, boasted that in 2016, ‘some 800 fighters had surrendered under a government reconciliation scheme'; and he is optimistic that “Things should improve for Balochistan as development comes along….I don't say this place is perfect, but it isn't Iraq or Syria.”

The Pakistani government and, especially the army sources suggest that everything is under control, but death of 1200 security force members and surrender of 800 fighters tells a different story. It proves that it is not a simple law and order matter; or some misguided people creating trouble on behest of the foreign powers.

May be from Pakistan's standards, death of 1,200 0r 2,000 ordinary security force members is not very serious matter, but in all civilised countries and in countries where governments and officials are accountable for their actions, this is alarming figure.

These people were not killed in a war with another country. They were killed by other Pakistanis who did not like what Islamabad government is doing in Balochistan. To make it easier for readers to understand that in the war of 1971, in which Pakistan lost East Pakistan and more than 90,000 army personnel were imprisoned, only 86 Indian soldiers were killed. Similarly, very few Israeli army personnel lose their lives in wars, because their government highly values them.

It is possible one day he will, like his other fellow countrymen, will be killed by a Pakistani bullet or an air attack. Pakistan, at one time, claimed that they have killed Dr Allah Nazar. He belonged to an impoverished town of Mashkay, and had a stable and prosperous life. But, one needs to investigate why this medical doctor abandoned his stable life and went to mountains to fight the Pakistani army – please don't say he did this because of money and India provided the money. Doctors in Pakistan are not poor.

Colin Freeman claims that men like Dr Nazar are the main obstacles ‘in the way of one of Pakistan's most important goals — the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC — which will run right through their homeland'. 10

Dr Allah Nazar further claims, ‘Already, construction zones for CPEC have turned into war zones….Since 2014, at least 44 members of the Frontier Works Organisation, an army-run construction firm spearheading the work, have been killed by separatist bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs)…We are attacking the CPEC project every day,” Dr Nazar told Reuters last September, which also confounded Islamabad's claims to have killed him in a raid the year before. “It is aimed to turn the Baloch population into a minority'. 11

Call them Baloch rebels or separatists, they have very serious resentment with what Islamabad, and the army is doing in their homeland. They are seriously worried that Balochistan will become home of a large number of Chinese civil and military personnel. They are also concerned that the CPEC will result in settling ‘hundreds of thousands of Punjabis from the rest of Pakistan, diluting the Balochi identity in the name of progress'.

To be contd..