A L I Chougule
Five years after Emmanuel Macron won the presidency on his first attempt, the French will decide whether he deserves a second term. Until a month ago, Macron seemed certain to be the first French president to win a second term in 20 years. Now a resurgent Marine Le Pen, whose focus on the rising cost of living has matched the national mood, stands in his way. Thus, what was meant to be a predictable outcome, has strayed from the script and turned into a thriller. Internationally, the presidential race will be analysed as a barometer for the strength of populism in Europe.
Le Pen's late surge in popularity and strong performance in the first round of French election on April 10 not only reflected widespread disaffection over rising prices, security, and, immigration, but also demonstrated the enduring appeal of nationalist and xenophobic currents in Europe. With Macron once again facing Le Pen in the run-off on April 24, France's presidential election may look like merely a repeat of the 2017 election, but there are major differences that are revealing about France and Western pluralism having to do with the return of war in Europe.
Given the uncertainty created by the two candidates running so closely in the first round and the widespread disaffection for both candidates, western political analysts view the April 24 run-off as France's most consequential turning point in the past 40 years. This is because the outcome could usher in an entirely new political and social era, in which illiberal democracy, personified by Le Pen, could gain the upper hand in a country that is one of the founding members of the European Union. Regardless of who wins, political analysts are of the view that France faces a deep paralysis because it's unclear who will gain a majority in the legislative elections later this year.
This means neither Le Pen will realise her nativist hopes, nor Macron will be able to further liberalise the French economy, a result that could further alienate citizens from politics. While the 2017 election was primarily about the hope of France remaining a liberal democracy, the 2022 election is said to be a tight contest between two emotions – anger against Macron, who is perceived as a technocrat out of touch with the people, and fear of Le Pen, who is largely seen by many as a dangerous far-right candidate. In both cases, Western media is of the view that most voters will vote against, rather than for, a candidate.
After the first-round vote, in which the hard Left leader of France unbowed, Jean-Luc Melenchon, came unexpectedly close to beating Le Pen to second place in the race, Melenchon urged his supporters not to vote for Le Pen in the run-off between Macron on April 24. The bluntness of his message indicates the gravity of a political moment that feels worryingly unpredictable. In the first-round vote, Macron secured 27.8 per cent of the votes against Le Pen's 23.2 per cent. His four-point lead over Le Pen was slightly bigger than five years ago when he went on to win the head-to-head second-round by a landslide. But the context of 2017, when Macron was seen as a fresh-faced liberal insurgent promising democratic renewal, and Le Pen was struggling to detoxify her hard-right brand, no longer applies.
This time around, polls suggest a far tighter contest in Sunday's second-round vote, with some suggesting that the gap between the two candidates is within the margin of error. How did France get here? According to The Guardian, clever PR has enabled Le Pen to successfully soften her public image, while the ongoing collapse of the centre-left and centre-right has normalised her presence in the spotlight. What has also helped is the emergence of another xenophobic far-right rival Eric Zemmour, allowing Le Pen to present herself as a relative moderate while preparing to inherit his support. In the run-off this Sunday, Le Pen is expected to consolidate a far-right bloc of more than 30 per cent of voters.
But what is yet to be seen is whether Le Pen will fully capitalise on voters' anger towards Macron for his perceived closeness to the rich segment of French society and the contours of his policy. His emphasis on pushing back the retirement age from 62 to 65 has rankled voters. In her efforts to pick up centrist votes, Le Pen has reportedly appeared at times almost moderate, compared with her more radical rival Zemmour. That probably seems to have worked for her in round one. But to get enough votes to become President, she will most likely have to return to espousing hard-line views. It may not be that difficult for her because behind her reassuring rhetoric, according to Western media, her more extreme policies remain intact.
For instance, she has promised to ban the hijab in all public places, which reflects her long-standing public antipathy to Islam. She has also spoken of curbing immigration and has promised to prioritise native-born French for welfare benefits over immigrants. However, by appealing to the extreme right, Le Pen also runs the risk of alienating the middle-of-the-road French voters who are more likely to vote for Macron or abstain rather than vote for her. The dilemma for Macron is just the opposite. He needs the support of the hard-Left. But it will be difficult for him to do so without diluting his economic programme, which in turn might lose him significant votes on the right.
Most French political analysts believe that Macron will still prevail, given that Le Pen's economic programme is an incoherent mess and her European policy is Frexit by stealth. Macron has much to boast about: he has reduced French unemployment to 7.4 per cent, the lowest in 13 years; France weathered Covid better than many other comparable countries, and his ideas have revived the European Union as a thinking force in global politics. He can still win the election but it's going to be pretty uncertain till the actual outcome on Sunday.
(The writer is an independent Mumbai-based senior journalist)
