Pranay Shome
It is coming back to where it all started two decades back. The Taliban is in the driver’ seat this time and on a relentless northward march taking town after town. It appears the Afghan nation may fall prey to Taliban well before the end of this year. While the US is packing its bags, ordinary Afghans who fought against the Islamist insurgent group and helped the Americans are worried about their fate if and when the Taliban returns to power. The rapid gains of the Taliban and the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan has put the legitimacy of the democratic government in Kabul at stake. It highlights a changed security scenario with regard to Pakistan and India who are the other primary stakeholders in the Afghan peace process. The possible return of the Taliban has the Pakistani deep state and the military establishment elated as they would now be in a firm position to dictate the internal affairs of Afghanistan. It provides Pakistan a fresh opportunity to undermine India’s position as a key participant in the Afghan affair and eventually achieve its (Pakistani) objective of strategic depth, to use Tilak Devasher’s words from his book, Pakistan — Courting the Abyss. A Taliban return constitutes a setback for India which has for years remained staunchly anti-Taliban and in the early years gave covert support to the Northern Alliance to oppose Taliban rule. Nevertheless, New Delhi has tried to change its policy of not engaging with the insurgent group in recent years. But that hasn’t resulted in fruitful results given Taliban’s historical closeness to the Rawalpindi Generals.
From the security perspective, India needs to be worried given the fact that the Taliban has provided shelter to proscribed Islamist terrorists who have been blacklisted by the UN. Also, India cannot trust the Taliban to remain committed to the Afghan peace accord or that they won’t let the country become a haven for terrorist groups like Islamic State and Haqqani Network. India, therefore, is on a pretty patchy turf when it comes to the outcome of the Afghan war. It is imperative that the mandarins of India’s foreign policy craft a new security strategy which can deal with India’s core regional security concerns following the exit of US troops from Afghanistan. The security strategy can include some elements: First, build a consensus among Afghans for a common social compact in accordance with Afghan customs and traditions to harmonize not just traditional Afghan lifestyles but also to conform to liberal democratic and cultural principles. Second, collaborate with the Afghan security forces, providing them training and equipment and take part in joint war exercises. The Afghan armed forces need to be strengthened in order to deal with the Taliban. Third, hold the Taliban accountable for the human rights abuses that they committed in the past. India should convince the world that the gains in made in past decades in democratic development of Afghanistan cannot be allowed to fritter away and no violation of the rights and liberties of women and children would be tolerated. Four, India must take the place of the US place in Afghanistan, not through direct military action but increased economic aid. India is one of the largest contributors of foreign aid to Afghanistan but much more needs to be done. India needs to invest in new areas and remain committed to Afghan economic prosperity. India must remain alert to Afghan developments because a disturbance in Afghanistan will have ramifications for India’s regional security concerns. At the same time, India must be watchful about Pakistani tactics to undermine India’s position and resolutely oppose such attempts.
(The writer is Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies, New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.)
