Redrawing election boundaries is by definition disruptive, and politicians are constantly fearful of being short-changed by the process. The redrawing of constituencies in Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir, where the demand for delimitation has come from Jammu and is perceived as reflecting the erstwhile state’s ethnoreligious split along regional lines, was always going to be a risky exercise. The preliminary proposals of the J&K Delimitation Commission, established in March 2020, appear to have substantiated regional parties’ worries that the procedure was only intended to increase the number of seats in Hindu-majority Jammu to benefit the BJP.
The five associate members — three National Conference parliamentarians and two BJP parliamentarians — were told that the findings suggest a six-seat increase for the Jammu area and one for the Muslim-majority Valley. This increases the number of seats in Jammu to 43, and the number of seats in Kashmir to 46. The BJP won all of Jammu’s 25 seats in the last Assembly election, which took place in 2014. One factor for delimitation is believed to be population. The proposal offers an anomaly — a population of 1,46,563 in Kashmir per seat, and 1,24,437 in Jammu — based on the previous census performed in 2011, according to which the population of Kashmir is 6,888,475 and that of Jammu is 5,350,811.
Other variables, such as voter lists, geographical and communication proximity, and a population margin of plus or minus 10% in each constituency, appear to have been considered by the Commission. It has also recommended reserving nine seats for Scheduled Tribes and seven seats for Scheduled Castes for the first time.
The idea has been criticised by all regional parties, including the NC, PDP, and People’s Conference, as a step to further weaken Kashmir following the state’s reorganisation in 2019, which divided it into two Union Territories and robbed it of its unique status. The J&K Reorganisation Act, 2019, does indeed include a plan to increase the number of Assembly seats. But in Kashmir, where the Centre has attempted to silence dissent for more than two years by imprisoning defaulters viz. politicians and political workers, journalists and others, the motives behind this delimitation exercise were bound to be questioned, especially since it has been postponed in other parts of the country until the new census.
The BJP’s desire for a Hindu chief minister, which it formed a ruling coalition with the PDP in the state for the first time in 2014, and a change in the rules of domicile and land ownership have created a situation in which the people of the Valley see the Centre’s actions as worsening the crisis. The delimitation exercise may exacerbate those concerns.
However, all parties must keep in mind that these are only tentative recommendations. The public and political parties have until December 31 to express their opinions to the Commission. It must explain the reasons behind its ideas in detail for its own credibility and the greater good.
