Rami N Desai | Jaideep Saikia

Relentless but disunited civil unrest continues to erupt in Myanmar without signs of abatement. The latest call by Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of the National Unity Government (NUG) to accelerate the “People's Defensive War” by targeting “the military and its assets” could witness the resistance coming together to battle the Tatmadaw under a single command. However, such a premise would largely rest on the NUG's ability to both commandeer a united front under a senior military leader from within the Tatmadaw who would be amenable to a defect-persuasion from the Myanmar army. Such a military leader would have to be chosen with great care. Indeed, there may be many in the leadership of the Myanmar army at this point in time who are not happy about the manner in which the army is oppressing its own people. Such a leader or a leadership could be encouraged to engineer a coup d'état against the repressive actions of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. It would depend on the NUG's capability to penetrate the senior echelons of the Tatmadaw. The case for Myanmar's future in the international forum has become murkier as a result of divided voices. China and Russia have “supported” the military takeover as opposed to the U S that has laid down sanctions under the Burma Act of 2021. India had abstained from voting against the condemnation of the military takeover in the UNGA. This is not only unhelpful but may also prove counter-productive to the efforts of the ASEAN to find a solution to the current situation in Myanmar. The fact that the ASEAN's April summit was attended by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing underscored that even ASEAN “acknowledged” that henceforth they would have to work with the junta. However, the most important aspect being watched was the UN General Assembly session in September. The fact that Aung Thurein, the new Myanmarese envoy to the UN, “did not speak” on the last day as scheduled seems to be heralding an adverse sine qua non for the Tatmadaw. Such developments coming in the heels of the “People's Defensive War” call by the NUG would have adverse ramifications on Naypyidaw's objective of consolidating its position as the undisputed power centre in Myanmar as also in the international arena. In the October ASEAN, Min Aung Hlaing was excluded after a consensus could not be reached for a political representative to attend, leaving Tatmadaw “extremely disappointed”.

Notwithstanding these developments, India should have a policy that promotes India's “Neighbourhood First” strategy and the “Act East Policy”. A recalibration exercise for a relationship with Naypyidaw is the imperative of the hour. Such a policy should take into account the measures that China has taken to arm the Tatmadaw and work out aspects that may ink a security concordat that may witness New Delhi supplying Naypyidaw with systems such as UAVs and communication equipment which the Myanmar army is in dire need of, especially in their war against the inimical militias. A robust economic engagement with Myanmar to expedite agreements on operationalisation of the Sittwe Port and India's offer of $6 billion for establishing an oil refinery and for joint vaccine production should be formed in right earnest. Myanmar — regardless of who governs its polity — is the decisive lynchpin for India's “Act East Policy” and much of North East India's economy and security is intertwined with the country. Even the ouster of the Indian Insurgent Groups from Myanmar has experienced an about-face with many valley-based groups coming into an agreement with the Myanmar army.

(Rami N Desai is an anthropologist and conflict analyst. Jaideep Saikia is a bestselling author and conflict analyst. He was a member of a Track II Dialogue with Myanmar in 2008 and 2014. The views expressed are personal.)