IAEA is firm in persuading Tehran and Saudi Arabia to stick to peaceful uses
By Girish Linganna
On May 6, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), visited Tehran and met with Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran's Foreign Minister. Shortly after, on May 19, a tragic helicopter crash claimed the lives of Mr. Amirabdollahian and Ebrahim Raisi, the President of Iran, along with others.
The recent deaths have plunged Iran's rigid religious government into a state of chaos and unpredictability, potentially affecting its nuclear agenda. Mr. Grossi, just back from Iran, discussed several critical issues with The Economist, including Iran's nuclear activities. He also touched on other pressing concerns, such as the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which is under Russian control, and the increasing global interest in nuclear weapons.
Based in Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has two main responsibilities outlined in the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The first is to encourage the safe and peaceful use of nuclear energy. The second is to prevent this energy from being used to develop nuclear weapons. Currently, Iran is the primary focus of these efforts.
Iran's nuclear program is expanding quickly in size and complexity. It now has 27 times more enriched uranium than the limit set by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an international nuclear deal that Donald Trump left in 2018. Trump withdrew because he felt the agreement didn't effectively block Iran from potentially developing nuclear weapons and failed to address its missile program and activities in the region.
Before Mr. Raisi's death, Mr. Grossi described the situation as an “empty shell,” indicating that the system or agreement (possibly the JCPOA or Iran's adherence to it) has become ineffective. He highlighted that Iran's stockpile, which is enriched to 60% purity—nearly at weapons-grade levels—is enough to make about three nuclear bombs. This term “empty shell” suggests that the original intent and effectiveness of the agreement are no longer being realized, essentially making it hollow and lacking in substance.
Mr. Grossi notes that with Iran deploying newer and more efficient centrifuges, the developments have effectively overtaken the JCPOA. Consequently, Iran is now capable of producing enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in just a week, and sufficient for seven bombs within a month.
During Mr. Grossi's visit to Iran in March 2023, the country pledged to work more closely with the IAEA, including reinstalling surveillance equipment that it had previously taken down. Mr. Grossi mentioned that the progress made stalled quickly, with discussions between the two sides not aligning. He expressed concerns that the IAEA no longer has a consistent understanding of various aspects of Iran's nuclear activities, including the production and stockpiles of centrifuges, heavy water, and uranium-ore concentrate.
Mr. Grossi pointed out that Iran could potentially restart a secret nuclear weapons program using materials such as centrifuges, heavy water, and uranium-ore concentrate, rather than at known sites that could be targeted for attacks. He returned on May 7th to see if he could resolve the deadlock. There had been expectations that Iran would reduce its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium by diluting it to lower levels, but according to Mr. Grossi, no such promise was made. It appears that Iran may have been misleading everyone involved.
Mr. Grossi is also worried about increasing comments from high-ranking Iranians suggesting the country might consider developing nuclear weapons. In April, during an exchange of missiles between Israel and Iran, a leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which oversees the security of nuclear sites, hinted that Iran could revoke a religious decree (fatwa) against nuclear weapons. This decree was issued by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, in 2003.In May, Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Mr. Khamenei, repeated the same threat twice in a few days. Mr. Grossi responded by saying this behaviour is unacceptable unless Iran decides to formally reject or withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), as reported by The Economist.
Experts and Western officials are divided on whether Iran's statements indicate plans to develop a nuclear bomb or if they are just aiming to strengthen their defense against America and Israel during a tense period. Mr. Grossi finds some reassurance in the fact that neither the late Mr. Amirabdollahian nor Mohammad Eslami, Iran's vice-president and head of its Atomic Energy Organisation, have echoed these concerning statements. Mr. Grossi believes a new agreement, which he refers to as “a rebooted JCPOA or a JCPOA 2.0,” is essential. However, the recent death of Mr. Raisi could disrupt the system and complicate matters further.
A regime that feels vulnerable and isolated might consider developing nuclear weapons to enhance its security. This situation could also influence its decision-making processes. Additionally, Mr. Raisi's ideological allies lack a clear successor who shares his characteristics. Reformist candidates were excluded from Iran's widely criticized presidential elections in 2021 and the parliamentary elections in 2024. They might be sidelined again since, according to the constitution, a new presidential election must be held 50 days after a president's death. There's a chance that a pragmatic conservative candidate could become the next president, potentially opening the door for negotiations on a new nuclear deal, though it's not guaranteed.
Mr. Raisi was considered a potential successor to the unwell Mr. Khamenei. His passing could increase the likelihood of Mojtaba Khamenei, Mr. Khamenei's son, taking over. This shift might also bolster the influence of his allies in Iran's Revolutionary Guards, who have been key players in the country's nuclear program for nearly four decades.
These topics are likely to be central at the upcoming meeting of the IAEA's board of governors from June 3 to 7 in Vienna.. Some Western nations are considering bringing Iran's case before the UN Security Council. Mr. Grossi noted that in the past, the permanent members of the Security Council, known as the P5, generally agreed on imposing sanctions on Iran. Mr. Grossi acknowledges that a unified response is unlikely now due to significant divisions between America, Britain, and France on one side, and Russia and China on the other. This deadlock among the major powers allows Iran to continue its activities with relatively little opposition.
Mr. Grossi warns that an Iranian nuclear bomb could have widespread effects. He points out that the situation on the Korean peninsula, referring to North Korea's acquisition of nuclear capabilities in 2006, had specific limitations that prevented a wider fallout. However, he suggests the implications could be more significant with Iran. Mr. Grossi believes the Middle East is a different scenario. He explains that if Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, it could prompt other countries in the region to pursue nuclear capabilities, or at least get closer to developing them, because they might feel the international system is not working effectively.
In September, Muhammad bin Salman, the effective leader of Saudi Arabia, stated that the kingdom would pursue a nuclear bomb if Iran did so. Saudi Arabia is currently negotiating with the United States as part of a wider energy and defense agreement. This includes seeking approval to enrich uranium and reprocess spent fuel, which are key steps in producing nuclear material. When questioned about Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions, Mr. Grossi is cautious in his response, stating only that he plans to “work very closely” with the kingdom. However, he expresses concern about the spread of nuclear weapons. He believes that the interest in nuclear capabilities could extend beyond the Middle East, noting a troubling trend towards their allure (or desire). He finds this development very regrettable.
The risk of nuclear conflict in the Middle East is just one of the serious issues Mr. Grossi is dealing with. Another major concern is that Russia plans to restart the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, an area it has taken over and militarized. The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant has been hit by shelling and drone attacks several times, with the most recent incident occurring in April. Mr. Grossi, who visited the site in February and met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow in March, has described the discussions about restarting the plant as ongoing and “very delicate.”
Mr. Grossi believes that the IAEA has been crucial in managing the situation. He noted that when the invasion started, no one specifically requested the agency or him to visit Zaporizhia. He mentioned that if he had sought permission for the visit, he likely would have been denied. With backing from the United States, Britain, and France—specifically highlighting Emmanuel Macron's support—Mr. Grossi decided to not only visit Zaporizhia but also to maintain a presence there. He joked that he went for a visit and ended up leaving a group of inspectors behind, who are still stationed there and at all other Ukrainian nuclear sites. He rhetorically asked, “And then we were there, and who is going to kick us out?”
Mr. Grossi highlighted that the IAEA's ongoing presence at the plant has enabled them to keep open communication with the Russian operators and act as a reliable source of information. He noted, “You may have noticed that there's almost no fake news about Zaporizhia… we provide an update every day.”Mr. Grossi mentioned that despite the ongoing attacks, both sides have largely honoured his requests not to use the plant as a military target. He stated, “Until this war ends without an accident, we can't declare ‘mission accomplished.' But I believe it's been a good example of what can be achieved.” However, Ukrainian officials are more doubtful, feeling that Russia has deceived the IAEA.
Alongside the challenges in Iran and Ukraine, the IAEA's responsibilities are expanding. In March, Mr. Grossi visited Damascus for the first time in 13 years and had a straightforward talk with Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad. Back in 2007, Israel destroyed an unfinished reactor in eastern Syria, suspecting it was part of a secret Syrian nuclear weapons program, which had not been disclosed to the IAEA.
Mr. Grossi admits that the IAEA may not learn much about the destroyed reactor, saying it was “mildly disposed of.” However, he's urging Syria to be more open about other related sites. He's uncertain about gaining access to these facilities, noting, “we are working on having a possibility to access these places,” but he views the ongoing discussions as a positive step. Mr. Grossi points out that while the IAEA doesn't have any direct communication with North Korea, the country's nuclear program is expanding in all areas and raises significant concerns about nuclear safety.
Mr. Grossi notes that in the coming years, the IAEA will need to oversee a surge in nuclear energy projects worldwide, including in developing countries and other areas. The IAEA anticipates a 30% increase in the number of countries with operational nuclear power plants by 2035. Currently, at least 59 reactors are being constructed, including in countries that are new to nuclear technology. Many of these projects are led by Russia or China, which generally apply less stringent safety measures compared to the United States.
Mr. Grossi is currently engaging with the United States, Britain, and Australia regarding the AUKUS agreement. This deal will enable Australia, which does not have nuclear weapons, to manage submarines that are powered by reactors using highly enriched uranium. Mr. Grossi highlights that advances in technology have significantly improved the monitoring of nuclear materials. He describes the agency's recent developments in detecting enriched uranium as “simply amazing.” He confidently states, “Even if you build a supermarket over a site that contained uranium 35 years ago, we're going to find it.”
Mr. Grossi points out that his diplomatic trips between Russia and Ukraine show how important international organizations can be, especially when people are skeptical about them. Mr. Grossi notes that the IAEA's reputation has improved. He mentions a shift from earlier times, explaining that the UN Security Council now actively seeks updates from the IAEA and wants to be informed about developments. Given this increased prominence, it's not surprising that he is being considered as a potential successor to António Guterres as the UN Secretary-General in two years.
(IPA Service)
