India have the duty of protecting its people from poverty
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
As the Twenty-sixth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) is nearing, all eyes are set on India, the fourth largest greenhouse gas emitter of the world, the first being China, second United States, and the third the European Union. It is because the latest update released on October 25, 2021 by the UN Climate Change Office says the world is nowhere near the goal, and preventing destabilization of the world and endless suffering would require doubling of the climate change efforts. Since largest number of poor among the largest emitters are in India, the world it waiting to see as to how the country is going to protect people both from poverty and climate change.
COP 26 is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, UK, from October 31 to November 4, 2021, and all the countries were expected to meet the deadline of October 12 for submitting the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), the national pledges declaring their intentions to meet the target to limit global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius, which India failed, though PM Narendra Modi had assured the world last month on September 25 during UN General Assembly and the first Quad leaders' – Australia, India, Japan, and US – summit to submit the latest update on NDC before the COP26 is held.
The new report released by UNFCCC just a week before the event therefore does not include the latest update from India, and the findings updated an earlier report which synthesizes plans outlined by countries in their NDCs under the Paris Agreement on climate change which aimed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius. This updated synthesis report incorporated information from 165 latest available NDCs, representing all 192 parties to the Paris Agreement. This includes 116 new or updated NDCs received from 143 parties as of this month, compared to 86 new or updated NDCs covered by the September report. It includes India's first and last NDC that was submitted in 2015, since it could not update it within the required five years by 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic engagements.
For the 143 parties that have submitted new or updated NDCs, total emissions are estimated at around nine per cent below the 2010 level by 2030. Additionally, 71 nations have communicated that they hope to reach carbon neutrality by roughly mid-century. Their total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission level could be up to 88 per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019, the new report says.
However, the update has also confirmed that for all available NDCs when taken together, would see a “sizeable increase” of around 16 per cent in the global GHG emission in 2030 when compared to 2019. This could lead to a global temperature rise of around 2.7 degree Celsius by the end of the century. This updated report unfortunately confirms that we are nowhere near where science says we should be.
Limiting global average temperature increase to 1.5 degree Celsius requires a 45 per cent reduction in carbon dioxide emission in 2030, or 25 per cent reduction by 2030 to keep it to two degrees, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said.
It is in this backdrop, India's response to climate change is much awaited by the world that has committed itself to the goal of net zero emissions by 2050. The Quad's joint communiqué refers to the global goal of net-zero emission by 2050 and pledges that the four partners will ‘contribute' to this aim. It has been later clarified that the Quad statement doesn't imply that all four countries will announce it. Net zero is a global goal that has to be achieved collaboratively factoring in national and economic circumstances of each country. There is also a dominant view prevailing in India that a net zero emission target, without support from the developed countries, would be a deeply flawed strategy, because the country needs to feed millions of poor whose conditions have already exacerbated due to the pandemic induced great economic crisis.
If India is to pursue Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) it would have little space to commit itself to net-zero by 2050 on its own. Moreover, India's current and historical per capita emissions are very low compared to the developed countries and the largest emitters. Fulfilling the SDGs commitments would necessarily translate into increase in emission for the next few decades, if the developing countries do not come forward with substantial financial support.
Despite this fact, India is going to install 450 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy by 2030, and the Prime Minister Narendra Modi had reiterated in the UN General Assembly. “India has established a better balance in both economy and ecology. You will definitely be proud to see India's efforts on climate action as compared to big and developed countries” he has assured the world along with making the country the world's largest Green Hydrogen Hub.
However, until India presents the updated NDCs, the world will remain on tenterhooks, because much of the net-zero by 2050 will depend on India. The present NDC of 2015 has envisaged an economy-wide emission intensity target of 33-35 per cent below 2005, electric power capacity target of 40 per cent installed capacity from non-fossil-based energy resources, but are conditional to international support, and creating a carbon sink expansion target of creating a cumulative additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. India has already achieved 24 per cent drop in emission intensity of its GDP and 39.64 per cent total installed non-fossil fuel power capacity.
Though this record is praiseworthy when compared to the records of other developing countries, the requirement of the world and the expectation of the humanity as a whole are much higher. The latest report of UN climate Office calls for doubling the efforts, but the billion dollar question is – Can India do that?
The government of India has still kept its card close to its heart, and it is most likely that India's cabinet headed by Prime Minister will finally decide on it soon, and only after that the world will know the official position of India. PM Modi will be in Glasgow to participate in the summit, and officials are not specifying whether India will present an updated NDC before COP 26 begins on October 31. “It is not mandatory for India to update its NDC. We can update it during the global stock take in 2023. Whatever India announces will be on a voluntary basis,” an official of Union Ministry of Environment has said. It shows the difficulties India is finding itself into. India must aim for a balanced strategy presuming no international support, and then achievement of higher goals commensurately linked to the level of international support. Procrastinating decision on updating NDC will not be a good strategy. (IPA Service)
