Beijing cautious on
pro-independence leader's poll victory
By Girish Linganna
Once dubbed ‘troublemaker' and a ‘dangerous separatist' by Beijing for his views on Taiwan's sovereignty, 64-year-old vice-president, son of a miner and doctor-politician William Lai Ching-te has now been chosen Taiwan's next president. His immediate task on hand is to navigate Taiwan's testy relationship with China despite Beijing's exhortations not to vote for him since he will bring “severe danger” to cross-strait relations, as quoted by a Washington Post report.
Although China has repeatedly warned against voting for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), millions of Taiwanese headed to the polls on Saturday to give the DPP—a party China has red-flagged for its ‘questionable' flirting with the issue of ‘Taiwanese independence'—an unprecedented third term.
Lai garnered around 40% of the total votes that were cast in more than 90% of the polling stations in the island by the last count on Saturday evening. Two of his other rival candidates were Hou Yu-ih of the conservative Kuomintang (KMT) party and ex-Mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen-je, of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), founded as recently as in 2019. Lai will formally be installed as the next president on May 20.Speaking to reporters after his win, Lai said, “I have an important responsibility… that is maintaining the peace and stability in the Strait of Taiwan.” He did not elaborate on how he proposed to do it, but said he was bent on safeguarding Taiwan from China's “aggressive threats and intimidation”.
The US has congratulated Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen and President-elect Lai at meetings with an unofficial Washington delegation, angering Beijing at the overseas government extending its support for Taiwan following the election result. President Tsai Ing-wen, who has already served two terms, was deemed ineligible to run for re-election.
Red-flagging ‘independence': China's has staked claims over Taiwan for many years now and considers the island its ‘home territory'. Chinese President Xi Jinping has set “reunification” as a non-negotiable target.
China has not only spoken in no uncertain terms of a long-term “peaceful reunification” goal to woo Taiwan's populace through ‘soft power' and a Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-sponsored propaganda blitz that shows “reunification” as a positive factor, but also taken recourse to veiled—and not so veiled—threats that have grown more strident over the past year. President Xi has even gone on record to state that the “reunification has a deadline” that cannot be missed.
China sees self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province to eventually be brought under Beijing's control and has not ruled out the use of force to take over the island. But Taiwan prides itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland, complete with its own constitution and democratically chosen leaders.
With every election held in the island, China gets more upset by the assertion of a Taiwanese identity that thwarts the chances of its stated goal of a “peaceful reunification” with the mainland. But, in the event of a military faceoff, China's 2,035,000 total active forces would overwhelm Taiwan's 169,000 (Source: The Military Balance 2023, IISS) many times over.
Background to China's claims: According to historical sources, says a BBC report, Taiwan first came under the full control of a Chinese empire in the 17th Century. In 1895, the country became a Japanese colony, after the Qing empire lost the first Sino-Japanese war. Then, in 1945, after Japan lost World War II, China took the island but, now, a nationalist government, led by Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, was in power.
This was at the height of a decades-long conflict between General Chiang's forces and Mao Zedong's Communist Party, adds the BBC report. In 1949, when the communists won, Chiang and the remaining nationalist party, known as the Kuomintang or KMT, fled mainland China to Taiwan, escaping impending defeat in the civil war at the hands of Mao Zedong's communist forces, and ruled the land for decades. They named it the Republic of China (RoC), a name Taiwan has retained.
The mainland, ruled by Mao and the CCP, became the People's Republic of China. Both laid claim to the other's territory. Neither Chiang, nor Mao, conceived of Taiwan as a separate entity with a separate people. But that is what has now transpired.
China has never demurred in staking its claim on the island. But, other than that, all else seems to have changed on either side of the 100-mile strait. China is now more economically prosperous, militarily stronger and unmistakably the ‘Big Brother' challenger. Taiwan, on the other hand, is now a healthy democracy with yet another successfully completed election where its ties with Beijing are being tested. Irrespective of the result of Saturday's referendum, Taiwan's independence is a real danger to the CCP's “reunification” goal.
Strategic importance of Taiwan: Taiwan, with its close links to China, is its largest trade partner. In the early-1960s, Taiwan experienced a high growth trajectory of its economy and industrialization, termed ‘Taiwan Miracle'. In the late-1980s/early-1990s, the RoC morphed from a one-party state under military rule to a multi-party democracy, with presidents chosen by ballot since 1996.
Taiwan, a developed country, has an export-driven industrial infrastructure which is the twenty-first-largest in the world by nominal GDP and the twentieth-largest by PPP measures, focusing on machinery, steel, electronics and chemicals manufacturing. Taiwan's economy is another factor. Most of the world's electronic products—from mobile phones to electric vehicles—are powered by Taiwan-made computer chips. By one measure, a single Taiwanese company—the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) holds more than 50% of the world's market.
The island sits in the so-called ‘first island chain', which includes a list of US-friendly territories crucial to Washington's foreign policy in the region. China's increasingly aggressive aspirations in the South China Sea have also made Taiwan more significant to US calculations. So, if China annexes the nation, it could spread its clout in the western Pacific region, challenging US ambitions. Beijing would also hold the key to a thriving industry that spurs the world economy.
But China has its own version of its hegemonic goals, claiming that its intentions are peaceful, all the while berating the US for surrounding Taiwan with its military bases stretching from Japan in its north to Australia in the south. (IPA Service)
(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru.)
