Shivaji Sarkar
The climate talks are being couched in good words to keep India dependent on the developed world by putting up economic barriers
Even as the UN climate change conference COP 26 proceeds, craze for electric vehicles go up, the world faces a new crisis as the lithium-ion battery supply chain hits a number of obstacles, high environmental concerns and shortage affecting the nascent industry. Highest rise in lithium prices may put the search for alternative fuel or even solar energy in jeopardy.
Not-so-rich countries like India need to apply caution on automobile policy, including scrapping of ten-year-old operational, mostly low pollution Euro IV and VI vehicles. The semi-conductor shortage has put a number of industries on their toes. Now battery shortages are emerging as blocking growth.
The developing and not-so-developed countries have to take steps to avoid taking a hit on their economy by junking vehicles. It costs India Rs 11 trillion. This is not required. The pace that countries like India are trying to junk should be a concern. It can put an aspiring, high-moving economy to an unprecedented thaw. The concern is becoming global, though the industry is trying to sweep the problem under the carpet.
Is India a special target of the large economies? That is a potential question emerging at the latest COP 26. The west is the worst polluter but they envy the growth of India as it would make many of the western producers redundant as a rising India would have the potential to grow and produce independently.
The climate talks are being couched in good words to keep India dependent on the developed economies by putting up economic barriers, including so called concern for the environment. This hits India hard. India has a good record on pollution control but NGT-like organisations have to relook it from a purely swadeshi angle. All that the West says and pontificates is not suitable for India. It cannot take the burden of world’s large sinners on itself. Traditionally India has an impeccable record of concern for the ecology.
Industry cannot be allowed to pollute but that also means that norms in India have to come in practice gradually and not all of a sudden.
The production of new vehicles is hit the world-over. With the economy just picking up in India, giving up the country’s existing strength is impractical. Pollution may be a concern but it should not be used to stop the nation’s growth because of a policy that may cause more problems. Wealth is generated gradually. People themselves with better economic health change to new technologies but forcing them to do so without allowing them to consolidate their economic positions may cause severe damage to the nation.
The auto industry problems are mounting. Tesla CEO Elon Musk says that his company does not have enough batteries to put new products like semi-heavy duty truck production. It shows that dependence on unproven new technologies can wreck the economies and most of the benefits imagined are far from reality.
Globally now it is realised that scrappage policy has been followed by a temporary boost in demand in the auto manufacturing sector in the US and Europe. It led to economic slowdown in the manufacturing sector and consumption due to recession.
It is gradually dawning on the world that supposed targets to cut carbon emission from China to the US cannot be met without rechargeable batteries. Each battery replacement adds to the problems of pollution as the scrapped battery adds to disposal hazards. It leaves toxic traces in large tracts and adds to the same problem of tackling pollution in a more difficult and widespread manner.
The latest is the emerging concept of circular economy. In such an economy, products, materials, equipment and infrastructure are kept in use for longer, thus improving productivity. The old vehicles add to the strength of the economy by keeping a significant low-end or marginally growing population highly mobile.
India has over an estimated 10.2 million vehicles that are older than 15 years, including 17 lakh commercial vehicles. Actual numbers would be far more. As a drive is on to scrap all these vehicles, it may hit the just rising post-corona pandemic economy hard.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is doing a fine job of talking to global leaders at COP26 on reducing global temperature but India has to be cautious about falling into a western trap and must set its own independent course.
The days ahead are difficult. Let countries like India completely review all new climate policies and go slow on them rather than rush into a difficult situation.
(The writer is a senior journalist. The views expressed are personal.)
