Draft Rules are ready to take effect from March 2026 favouring only rich
By T N Ashok
NEW YORK: In a blunt, unfiltered declaration, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced on national TV that the H-1B visa system is a “scam.” He lambasted it for displacing American workers and favouring cheaper foreign labour, then unveiled plans for sweeping reforms. “Hiring American workers should be the priority of all great American businesses. Now is the time to hire American,” he said. “We are going to start picking the best people to come into the country.”
This isn’t just rhetoric. Lutnick and the Trump administration is pushing to replace the lottery-based H-1B system with a wage-based allocation, privileging highly paid applicants.
The proposed “Weighted Selection Process” would give preference to higher-wage job applicants rather than pure chance. Eliminates the random lottery. Prioritizes salary thresholds and skill levels. A draft rule is already under review and could take effect by March 2026 for the FY2027 cycle.
In what critics call a parallel track, Trump and Lutnick have floated a $5 million “Gold Card” visa, replacing the EB-5 investor program with a direct purchase route to permanent residency and potentially citizenship.
Trump claims it can sidestep congressional checks. “A green card plus,” is how he described it. Lutnick envisions raising substantial revenue and quickly attracting elite investors. A waiting list is already live on trumpcard.gov, with tens of thousands signed up — even though legal ground remains murky.
Indians receive roughly 70–72% of all H-1B visas, with annual caps of 65,000 general slots and 20,000 for U.S. master’s degree holders. A shift to wage-based criteria could cripple entry for early-career professionals, who often accept lower salaries.
Entry-level tech workers and graduate students may find themselves shut out. Visa-dependent family members (H-4) will face extended uncertainty. Existing holders may fear renewal denials or rising scrutiny.
While Lutnick’s statements targeted worker visas, the tendrils extend: Graduate students, whose futures hinge on internships and optional practical training (OPT), may be deprived of pathways to H-1Bs. Career planning becomes speculative, as the sentencing of a career is now wage-determined, not merit or academic performance.
A second-year PhD student in machine learning at UC Berkeley—his family in India maxed out on loans—reportedly said : “I may finish my degree, but desperate now — asking ‘Will I be deported when I try to stay?’” An engineering grad on H-1B at a Silicon Valley startup—promised a route to a green card—now waits, terrified it will vanish soon.
Universities and tech companies are scrambling. “We train these young folks,” said a dean of engineering at a public university. “Then they’re just brick-batted with policy changes halfway through their journey.”
Lutnick’s targeting of Indian applicants isn’t accidental. It fits Trump’s “America First” stance and his ambition to appear tough on immigration, especially amid his 2026 reelection push. The wage-based model sells well in Rust Belt states, where voter frustration with offshoring and job loss runs deep. Meanwhile, the $5M Gold Card pitches directly to wealthy foreign nationals and elite businesses—as a revenue grab and prestige play.
But critics point out this warps immigration: “This commodifies citizenship,” says a migration policy analyst. It “funnels access to the well-heeled and sacrifices fairness.” American universities benefit to the extent of $13 billion every year through Indian student admissions in terms of tuition fees and other expenses, add to this the VISA expenditure that adds income to the US treasuries. US Universities are concerned their main revenue stream cut be cut off starving them of funds.
OPT and STEM Extension Holders may see H-1B route blocked. Green Card Pending: Processing could halt or slow—Lutnick explicitly said “We’re going to change the green card.” Average green card recipient makes around $66K vs Americans at $75K. Many are stuck in limbo — fearing return to India with uncertain job prospects.
As regards lottery to wage, past attempts in 2021 were abandoned by Biden due to backlash. Courts partly blocked fast-tracked changes. Congressional Authority: Immigration is a congressional prerogative. Replacing EB-5 without Congressional law raises substantial legal challenges. Experts warn it’s unlikely to fly without legislative support. Global Backlash: European Golden Visa programs have waned amid corruption and housing crises. Trump’s Gold Card could face similar pushback.
Indian students expect urgent appeals via high-level diplomacy. Modi’s government may call out this as targeting Indian talent and students. There will be surge in applications to Canada, Australia, Europe, and Singapore. “We’re already seeing that,” says a Vancouver immigration consultant. UP Immigration Policy: Schools and employers may impose financial risk warnings. Degree programs may shift focus to domestic or regional placements. Public Outcry: Indian diaspora organizations may mobilize in U.S. colleges and tech communities.
India loses future professionals… but also retains talent. Higher wages don’t automatically bring innovation. The U.S. may find talent deserts forming. Inequality Grows as only rich Indians can buy entry (Gold Card), while middle-class students are sidelined. Bilateral Strain: This adds another layer of friction to U.S.–India ties—already beleaguered by trade tensions and strategic mismatches.
This visa overhaul is not a minor policy shift—but a watershed transformation. Whether it’s wage-based H-1Bs or $5M entry passes for the elite, the message is clear: America is drawing new borders, not just on walls, but on opportunity itself.
For millions of Indian students, researchers, and tech professionals—who once saw the U.S. as a land of possibility—this is their future imperilled. Modi’s government and academic communities must now scramble to redirect dreams—and to rally resistance, adaptation, and, perhaps, alternative alliances. (IPA Service)
