CPI(M) is in apathetic state with little possibility of turnaround before 2026 polls
By Tirthankar Mitra
Influence of Indian Secular Front (ISF), the “one legislator party” in the West Bengal Assembly is not to be judged by its representation. It contested on its own in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and cut into the support bases of Congress and several Left Front partners triggering them to slide below the ISF in some of the constituencies after votes were counted.
Initially, the CPI(M) tried to rope ISF in. The negotiations fell through and the principal front partners as well as others on board with it had to pay dearly at the elections in which it had the ISF not as an ally but an opponent.
In the 2024LokSabha polls, results of Barasat and Basirhat ( where the Sandeshkhali outrage took place) in North-24-Parganas, Joynagar, Mathurapur and Diamond Harbour in South-24-Parganas, Uluberia in Howrah, Srirampur in Hooghly and Murshidabad Lok Sabha are cases in point. The Front candidates had to concede a big slice of their vote share to ISF candidates in these seats .
In fact, the CPI(M) nominees finished fourth at Basirhat, Barasat, Joynagar and Mathurapur. Leadership of ISF has been claiming that had they contested these seats sans the competition from front nominees, they could put up a tougher contest to TMC candidates in a more level playing field.
The Left Front contested the Lok Sabha election in alliance with Congress in all 42 seats, the Left in 30 and the Congress in twelve. The CPI(M) itself contested in 23 seats while the other LF partners fought in seven seats. The ISF performance showed that in a large number of constituencies in rural Bengal, the anti-TMC Muslim votes shifted to the ISF more belying the CPI(M)'s pre poll thinking that the Muslim votes will shift to the Congress-LF alliance.
The 2021 assembly election results are pointers that this newly arisen outfit has been building up its base among the Muslims and Dalits after winning a seat in Bhangar in 2021 Assembly election. It was PCC chief Adhir Ranjan Choudhury who first raised the apprehension of ISF cutting into minority votes which had committed support bases to Congress and Left.
Formed in 2019 by Muslim cleric of Furfura Sharif, it had been taken lightly by TMC leadership till the 2021 assembly elections. Thereafter, a prolonged judicial custody of Bhangar ISF MLA Naushad Siddiqui showed his popularity among the rural masses. The CPI(M) also extended solidarity to his struggle.
Trouble surfaced when ISF named candidates in eight Lok Sabha seats including Malda(North), Joynagar, Murshidabad, Barasat, Basirhat, Joynagar, Jhargram and Srirampur. It went against the alliance pattern of Left-Congress. Murshidabad Lok Sabha had been earmarked for CPI(M) state secretary Md Selim to contest from. The PCC chief Choudhury had pledged his support to the CPI(M) leader.
Conceding it to ISF would have been a disappointment to Selim. As for Adhir who has no love lost for ISF giving it up would have been a loss of face. None of the duo was agreeable to backtrack. Fissures turned into cracks in the alliance rupturing it and in the process imploding a coalition which could have otherwise given TMC candidates a better joint fight..
Muslims in West Bengal felt only Mamata Banerjee-led TMC is strong enough to protect them from some of BJP's policies which they feared would adversely affect their identity. The ISF staked its claim to 27 per cent Muslim votes in the state. In doing so, it overlooked that it's vote share was a miniscule 1.35 per cent in 2021 Assembly elections. To cover up its tactical error, ISF blamed the PCC chief Adhir Ranjan Choudhury.
An analysis of the assembly segments of the voting pattern in 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bengal shows that the TMC has lead in 190 assembly segments as against 90 by the BJP, 11 by the Congress and only one by the CPI(M) in Raninagar of Murshidabad Lok Sabha constituency. This means that the TMC tally went down from its 2021 assembly figure of 213 while the BJP increased from its assembly tally of 77. The Congress got leads in 11 assembly segments against zero 2021..
The Congress despite losing one Lok Sabha seat could get votes in three districts- Murshidabad, Maldah and Dinajpore. The party has isolated pockets of good support base. The most pathetic is the condition of the state CPI(M).Out of the 23 contestants, the CPI(M) which ruled for 34 years, lost its deposits in 21 constituencies. Only Md. Selim, the state party secretary was second from Murshidabad. Another candidate Sujan Chakraborty, a member of the CPI(M) central committee was third. In Dum Dum constituency. That the CPI(M) leadership in Bengal was totally isolated from the political mood of the electorate, is apparent from the Lok Sabha results.
The CPI(M) state committee will be shortly meeting to review the Lok Sabha results in Bengal. But nobody in the party is expecting any light at the end of the tunnel. The Lok Sabha elections results have once again vindicated that the electorate in Bengal still think the state's political governance between TMC and the BJP. The CPI(M) is far away from their radar and that remains true for the coming 2026 state assembly polls also. IPA
