Britons across the UK will head to the polls in 2024 or early 2025 to elect a new government, with all signs pointing to a potential change in power based on recent survey data. The latest polling figures compiled in a new tracker by The Economist magazine reveal that the opposition Labour Party currently enjoys a 20-percentage point lead over the ruling Conservatives.
If such a gap between the two major parties were reflected come election day, it would translate to significant Conservative losses and a potential Labour majority government led by party leader Sir Keir Starmer. The Economist's tracker averages out results from multiple pollsters and also breaks down voting preferences by demographics like age, region, and views on Brexit – the defining political issue of recent UK politics.
According to the data, just two-thirds of those who voted Conservative in the last election say they would do so again. Meanwhile, Labour holds strong leads among younger voters in particular, with over half of 18-34 year olds backing Sir Keir Starmer's party. The polling also suggests the Conservatives have lost much of their support among Leave voters who backed Brexit, who now seem split between multiple parties.
While British election forecasts must always be treated cautiously given past misses by pollsters, academics interviewed by The Economist warn that the polling trend lines clearly favor Labour at this stage. Even if the race tightens as election day approaches, the Conservatives have a major hill to climb to retain power. With years of governing and a struggling UK economy dragging their popularity down, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his party could face a reckoning when Britons next head to the ballot boxes.
