Analysis
by Dr. Jaipal Singh
Ever since a lot of brainstorming and serious reviews has been carried out within the BJP, besides inputs from other independent sources. Accordingly, some of the more significant probable reasons behind the poor performance of the BJP, and NDA in general, at elections in certain states, and chiefly Uttar Pradesh, are listed as follows:
- There was public dissatisfaction with the sitting MPs having already won two or more terms. Besides, the conduct of certain MPs was also inappropriate causing general annoyance in public. These factors further aggravated anti-incumbency leading to party losses.
- State level recommendations were ignored in many cases by the central leadership in the context of denying tickets to unpopular candidates, priority to newly joined members from other parties and change of candidates in many cases. It is generally perceived now that the outcome would have been better if such recommendations were accepted.
- A narrative was aggressively built by the opposition about change of the Constitution eliminating the quota of the Dalits and OBCs and the BJP could not effectively counter this disinformation. Consequently, a large number of particularly Dalit voters drifted to the opposition parties.
- In several Lok Sabha constituencies, a considerable gap in coordination was observed between the sitting MLAs and the nominated BJP candidate for the constituency. This lack of support and proper canvassing led to defeat of the official candidates.
- At several places, the party cadre and party workers felt ignored by the leadership. This, and reportedly, in some constituencies, the nominated candidates have such a poor image that the local BJP leaders and party workers did not come out wholeheartedly of their homes to campaign for the candidates. Such neglect became a major issue in many cases and the disappointed and indifferent workers did not vote or mobilize others to vote for the party.
- The disinformation machinery of the opposition parties dominated and succeeded in several pockets where the BJP leaders and workers could not effectively counter the former’s narratives: for instance, the Agniveer Scheme in Army, Examination Paper Leak, etc.
- A large number of constituencies in the states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, etc. now have a sizeable strength of minority population (mainly Muslims) with a potential to determine the fate of candidates. Such minority, despite reaping full benefits of the developmental schemes of the NDA government in last ten years, overwhelmingly voted against the BJP and NDA candidates in almost all constituencies.
- Assurances for the distribution of freebies, payment of Rs one lakh annually (@8,500/-p.m.) and misleading narrative of the caste census and redistribution of wealth by the Congress too had its considerable impact on voters. This is also evident from the fact that long queues of women, particularly belonging to the minority population, to collect monthly assured money were seen at the district Congress Party offices at many places across the country after the election.
The end result was that the BJP got just 240 seats with alliance’s total tally of 293 seats while they had aggressively pitched for a national tally of 400 plus seats, expecting and improvement over their previous best of 2019 at 352. The position would have been worse provided the BJP had not made nearly clean sweep in the states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Delhi; the states of Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, Uttarakhand, etc. were also helpful.
Major Take Away from Fragmented Mandate
The post-election scenario clearly indicates that although Narendra Modi succeeded in forming the government at the Centre for the Alliance but their ambitious slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar” targeting for over 400 seats for the NDA alliance has backfired. This is the reason why some analysts and sceptics hold that this NDA victory actually sounds like a defeat. The poll verdict also marked a surprising revival of the Congress with 99 seats in sharp contrast to various opinion and exit polls i.e. pre- and post-election surveys. Despite the BJP emerging as the single largest party with MPs tally more than the total seats earned by the combined opposition, the pre-poll hype and expectations have rendered the leaders and supporters quite disheartened. On their part, Rahul Gandhi and Akhilish Yadav have not only successfully forged a coalition of the Congress and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh but together they are also calling shots in the newly constituted 18th Lok Sabha.
Although still a rather loose assembly with conflicting interests in different states, the I.N.D.I. Alliance appears to be upbeat that together they can defeat the BJP by stopping the splitting of votes. With the assembly elections due this year in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana as also states of Bihar and Delhi next in line, the opposition may pose a tough competition and challenge to the BJP and NDA alliance. In this author’s opinion, the following are three major takeaways responsible for the ruling alliance’s setback in the recently concluded general election, for which they will have to adopt an effective strategy and action to consolidate their position and stay in power.
(a) Anti-incumbency
Anti-incumbency is a worldwide phenomenon and it would seldom occur that a political party or leader is returned to power for the consecutive third term. In India itself, the late Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru could attain this feat in 1962 when there was not much challenge to the Congress at the national level and electorate too was not so aware and demanding. In the instant case, the multiple independent periodical surveys and opinion polls constantly reflected the BJP in comfortable position under the popular leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Consequently, the overzealous and confident BJP could not gauze anti-incumbency in the states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana owing to multiple factors cited in previous paragraphs. For illustration, the largest setback came from Uttar Pradesh and Haryana owing to the consolidation of the Dalit and Jat voters in favour of the I.N.D.I. Allaince with most of the Yadav and Muslim votes already in their pocket, thanks to the constant misinformation by the opposition including the change of the Constitution.
(b) Misinformation Based Opposition Narratives
In a vastly overpopulated country like India, the issues like poverty, inflation, employment, public health and welfare schemes have always been a subject of concern. However, the BJP in their earlier stint with the late Prime Minister AB Vajpayee (2000-04) and last ten years under Narendra Modi have done exceedingly well on these accounts if compared to various Congress or Congress supported regimes in the past. During the canvassing for the recently concluded elections, the opposition parties constantly raised these issues as if the NDA government has completely failed to tackle these problems. The congress aggressively came with a narrative in several election meetings and public gatherings about conducting a caste census and financial survey across the country to redistribute wealth on a proportionate basis – a dangerous divisive agenda for the nation compelling voters to rethink about their choices. The Congress scheme of the payment of Rs. 8,500/- to an elderly woman of each (poor) family continued to create confusion even after the election. Perhaps the most damaging impact came with the opposition aggressively circulating misinformation that the Modi government will deprive Dalits and OBCs of their reservation quota by destroying the Constitution, if the BJP is voted in power. The BJP could not effectively counter the Opposition’s claim about the Constitution that started with an inane statement made by Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency BJP candidate Lallu Singh.
(c) Management of Minority Voters
The minorities, mainly Muslims, have a substantial population of over 20% in the country. The Muslim electorate has a potential for playing a decisive role in the dozens of the Lok sabha constituencies across the country, more particularly in the states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and Bihar. During the last ten years of the NDA, the benefits of various social welfare schemes have been extended to all eligible population without any discrimination by caste and religion. In fact, the official data released for various welfare schemes from time to time on housing, sanitation, rasoi gas, public health, free rations, etc., clearly suggest that among the total beneficiaries, the Muslims constitute about 30 to 35 percent recipients (against about 15% population). Notwithstanding this, a malicious narrative was constantly escalated nationally and internationally by the vested interests that the BJP and Mr. Modi, with their Hindutva agenda, are constantly engaged in marginalizing Muslims in India. Although this could be cited as the failure of the BJP to convince the Muslim electorate and the latter’s consolidation in favour of the opposition alliance, the fact is the majority Muslims put their religion above all other considerations.
Conclusion
The election verdict for the 18th Lok Sabha indicates that Prime Minister Modi has lost some shine, a reminder that even Brand Modi is susceptible to anti-incumbency and misinformation; besides the party still needs a learning to deal with a section not amenable to any amount of goodwill and welfare when it comes to religion. The last ten years’ governance in India had made many political experts and analysts to start believing that this country is heading for a one-party dominant oligarchy with another over hundred years old strong political establishment gradually fading to oblivion. What made them to believe so were the developments like the emergence of a charismatic leadership in BJP, a strong and sturdy organizational machinery, an unmatched control over the resources and communication tools, one-party dominant system and lack of a viable opposition in foresight.
The most remarkable outcome of the elections is the return to an era of the coalition politics. The previous two decades had seen a chaotic socio-political order due to the compulsions of the coalition governments. The 1990s were characterized with many weak and unstable governments, mid-term elections and their control by proxy; then the previous two UPA regimes had a prime minister who had to work under the influence of an extra-constitutional political framework in the name of the National Advisory Council. The last ten years saw a stable government under Mr. Modi, the hope for continuity, a clear roadmap for the country’s development and progress with a tenable indigenization effort, and multiple and efficient welfare schemes. All this led to a considerable augmentation of India’s credibility and global image building but now we have to wait and see how Modi government would sail out with the coalition politics and associated compulsions to deal with the developmental challenges and the current Bhartiya civilizational (cultural) crisis. (Concluded)
(This Article is reproduced in three episodes from www.boloji.com for fair information of our readers)
The Author is a retired civil servant of GoI; His core areas of specialization have been public administration, finance, information technology, human resource development, budget and planning, and legal matters. Currently, he is engaged in an Advisor capacity with one illustrious Central Autonomous Body; He has own literary website and his works are also available on
https://www.myhummingword.com)
