By Neil John
War on Terror
The War on Terror (WoT), also known as the Global War on Terrorism
(GWOT) and the U.S. War on Terror, is the term that refers to the
military campaign launched by the United States government following
the September 11 attacks. The targets of the campaign are primarily
extremist groups located throughout the world, with the most prominent
groups being Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and their various franchise
groups. This is the first time the campaign addressed the
possibilities of a war, yet keeping it below the thresholds of an
actual military campaign.
The most prominent facet was building up a narrative. This was backed
by intelligence (proven falsified later) on the existence of weapons
of mass destruction in Iraq. The US intelligence failed to even
identify the support system of these terrorists, they later found
Osama-Bin-Laden in Pakistan, presumably supported by the ISI.
What was the most distinct was the statement of the US president
George Bush, extracts of which are quoted… “Every nation, in every
region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are
with the terrorists.”
The world responded with an unprecedented coalition against
international terrorism. The whole world barring a few minor countries
came together to fight with the US and contribute towards this war,
sadly without an end state.
What did alliances achieve in the War on Terror – they further
destroyed the Arab identity. Caused nations to fight each other,
instead of using political means, military means took precedence.
Inducted a lot of military hardware where none existed, intelligence
became toxic and could change narratives as per intended perceptions.
The entire philosophy of fight against terrorists was seen as
occupationists. The cat strophe was the refugee problem. Even
terrorists found safe haven in countries that accepted refugees.
Trust was lost, western forces were seen as the enemy, whatever their
intentions. Pakistan was the parasite and the scavenger. The vultures
that ensured the spoil and then consumed that too. Who won? Did
terrorism stop? Have you ensured that safe havens don’t exist? Is
Afghanistan or Iraq better than what it was before? Has Islamic
terrorism subsided? Infact we have terrorism cause a huge refugee
problem. Terrorism has also reached all parts of the world and been
given a religious identity. What changed?
War Against the ISIS
Initially taking a cue from the jasmine revolution in Egypt, protests
against President Assad’s regime in 2011 quickly escalated into a
full-scale war between the Syrian government, backed by Russia and
Iran and anti-government rebel groups, backed by the United States,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others in the region. The USA who were
against the reign of Bashar Al Assad as president of Syria, saw this
as a good opportunity to indulge and ensure a US footprint in Syria.
The complex alliances are still fighting a war, with no end state,
just political interests, with Turkey being the predator, using this
war to cleanse the Kurds. According to estimates by the United
Nations, more than 400,000 people have been killed in Syria since the
start of the war. The UN reports that, as of January 2019, more than
5.6 million have fled the country, and over 6 million have been
internally displaced.
The complexities have only increased through external military
intervention, including the provision of arms and military equipment,
training, air strikes and even troops in support of proxies in Syria.
Iran, Israel, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the U.S.-led
coalition have great investments and great stakes involved.
Is this the new normal, Fighting your wars in others spaces, with
agendas that are more economical and militarily viable. Is this in the
garb of what we now term as “JUST WARS”? Will strong alliances and
partners ensure security, safety and freedom? Is this the best method
of mitigation of military threat?
Indo – China Context
India is today caught in a quagmire of its own creation. On one side
it has a neighbour who is using means below war to instigate, employ
and disturb. On the other hand it’s fraught with asymmetry of military
means of war, economy, technology and advantages of terrain in the
operational domain to the adversary. Clubbed together a collusive
threat is seen as real and possible. China has its reasons, an agenda
that is undefined but practicable. The display of strength and intent
of the present Chinese polity, to stay powerful and relevant.
Resurgence of the PLA, through force maximization, influx of
futuristic technology, theaterisation, dominance in manifestation of a
threat in being, by constant exercising and forward deployment in the
visible domain. Hard political statements, development of border
infrastructure, constantly negating India in international forums.
Surrounding India by a chain of economic surges and development dreams
in South Asia and Africa. Increased presence in the IOR, additional
military convergence with Pakistan. Show of military strength in all
domains, credibility in the grey zone etc.
China is just in my perception making war as a NON OPTION for India.
This is by increasing the cost of war to unacceptable economic
tenability. Where do we stand in comparison with China in particular
domains?
Economy – The $9 trillion Chinese economy dwarfs the $2 trillion
Indian economy on almost every count. In 2019, China’s GDP was 4.78
times greater than India. In 2019. Though it is predicted that India’s
economy will grow at a rate of 12.5% in 2021, it is still in no manner
going to catch up with China in the near future.
Technology – China at an average is fifteen to twenty years ahead of
India in most respects. The Chinese are concentrating heavily on
research and development. Reverse engineering already existing
technology by buying them through a third party. But can we actually
catch up?
Military Budget & Technology – The amount of money China is spending
on military technology cannot be matched by India. China’s 2021
defense budget was set at 1.36 trillion Yuan, a 6.8 percent increase
from the 1.27 trillion Yuan budget set in 2020. For the past decade,
the annual increase in China’s official military spending has outpaced
its annual GDP growth, reflecting the priority that Beijing attaches
to bolstering its armed forces. Compare that to India, India has the
third biggest defense budget at $71.1 billion. However, China’s
defense budget is more than three times that of India at $261 billion.
India allocated $18.48 billion for weapons procurement in its
2021-2022 defense budget. Excluding pensions, the new defense budget
totals $49.6 billion, an increase of more than 3 % from the previous
year’s $47.98 billion. New capital expenditure of $18.48 billion meant
for arms procurement witnessed an increase of about 16 % from the
previous $15.91 billion. But most of this allocation would go in to
maintain existing vintage equipment and upgrade the existing.
Certain essential new equipment will be bought. In the Atma Nirbhar
Bharat programme, indigenous industry has been given a boost. But
India is still way behind in research and development. The DRDO and
its various components live on borrowed technology and innovations
instead of actually concentrating on R&D.
As the operational military situation becomes more and more complex,
there seems to be a push but the shove is still missing. We are way
behind in even the sheer numbers of equipment. The Chinese are
dominating the Gray Zone. They are vibrant in the cyber and the space
domain. They are concentrating on niche technologies and aiming to
draw parallels with the USA. The rush to militarise and indiginise at
the same time is harmful, because it is not very well thought off.
So what then? – Since we cannot match up to China in the economic and
military confluences, is a systematic need based alliance in the geo
strategic domain, both military and trade a viable option? Is the QUAD
and the AUKUS the way forward? If the necessity is negating the
Chinese military threat and balancing china, is alliances something we
can’t do without? –To be continued.. (Courtesy: Mission Victory India)
(The author is a military analyst and commentator on national security
issues. Views expressed are the author’s own and do not reflect the
editorial policy of Mission Victory India)
