Havana reciprocates U.S. gesture by announcing pardon to 2010 inmates
By Satyaki Chakraborty
Amidst the intensification of the US-Israel axis war in Iran and President Trump’s continuing threat to Cuba on regime change, a positive development has just taken place in US-Cuba relations following the U.S. administration allowing a Russian tanker with oil reaching Havana to help the energy starved nation. Cuba also has reciprocated the U.S. gesture by declaring the pardoning of 2010 prisoners, as per the demand of Washington.
Cuba has been facing a severe energy crisis in the recent weeks following Trump’s stricter actions on blockade of Cuba and allowing the ships of the friendly countries carrying oil to reach the Cuban shores. This unilateral illegal action of Trump led to outrage in United Nations and the Latin American countries. Some back channel discussions took place and Cuba agreed to the demand of US for freeing some prisoners including the US nationals as a part of the interim deal to get some relief from oil embargo. It is not clear whether US will allow more ships to carry oil and other commodities to Havana.
But Russia, on its own has announced that it will send a second ship to Havana carrying oil. Similarly Mexico has also indicated that the government is ready to send supplies to Cuba which is facing shortage of oil products and some other essential commodities. Cuban administration has been forced to introduce rationing of oil products due to the shortage situation. The situation was quite severe last week but it has improved in the last two days.
Cuban government is taking all measures to improve the situation as many nations have assured Havana of assistance. Last month, a large number of activists from Europe visited Havana with aid and distributed that to the Cuban agencies. But these aids are small compared to the big needs of the Cuban nation at this time badly affected by the US economic blockade for years. Cuba needs big help just as it got from the erstwhile Soviet Union.
For decades, Cuba could rely on external support. First from the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc countries of Eastern Europe, later from Venezuela. These alliances formed a lifeline, especially for energy supply and trade. But that phase was over first by the slowing down of Russian supplies and then the last jolt was the capture of President Nicholai Maduro by the US and Cuba denied the oil supply which the country was getting till last year.
According to the Latin American experts, after the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. troops, a crucial partner disappeared. For the first time since 1959, Cuba no longer has a real strategic partner and stands almost alone. Trump with his imperial mission, has thought it the best time to take on Cuba which has been consistently rebuffing all American pressures since the revolutionary government under Fidel Castro took over power in 1959.
Trump openly declared that he could take over Cuba. “I mean, whether I free it, take it. Think I can do anything I want with it,” he told journalists at the White House in Washington. Even last month, at the height of Iran war he said after Iran, I would focus on Cuba. In fact after taking over for the second time, he targeted the red and pink regimes in Latin America for regime change.
To achieve this, on January 29 this year, Trump imposed a total oil blockade. Countries that still dare to supply oil to the island are put under extremely heavy pressure by Washington. In addition to the energy cut-off, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is systematically trying to dry up every source of foreign currency for Cuba.
More specifically, Rubio is targeting international medical missions. By forcing host countries to expel Cuban doctors, the island loses what is currently its largest source of income, which it uses for the import of medicines and basic food.
According to the Cuban sources, before the energy blockade, Cuba consumed about 110,000 barrels of oil per day, of which 40,000 were produced domestically. The rest came from Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia. Since January, that supply has completely dried up. Only one ship—a Russian tanker—has made it to a Cuban port in the last three months.
The Cuban government acknowledges that policy mistakes were made in the past, such as the failed monetary reform of 2021. But no economy can hold up when it has to run on barely 40% of its energy and is simultaneously being financially strangled.
For the Cuban population, this crisis translates into a harsh reality. Cities are at a standstill because there is no fuel for buses and cars. Industry can barely operate, shops are difficult to supply, and food is becoming scarcer.
Healthcare, once a showpiece of the revolution, is under severe pressure. Operations are postponed or canceled for fear of power outages. Mortality in the first year of life has doubled.
Vulnerable, premature babies die in incubators when the lights go out, even though medical staff do everything they can to keep ventilating them manually. According to the World Health Organization, the situation is “very worrying.”
The resilience of the Cuban population is currently being tested to the limit in a struggle for survival that has been deliberately created by Washington to provoke social unrest and a popular uprising. The immigrant Cubans residing in Miami are rich and are getting funding by the right wing Americans and MAGA supporters to create unrest in the mainland. The present serious shortage situation has given them a fresh opportunity.
Many Cubans living in the United States want nothing less than regime change. A hard but influential core will strongly oppose any rapprochement with Cuba and even try to sabotage it. For his future political career, Rubio—himself the son of Cuban migrants—depends on this group of hardliners. He has already indicated that he is aiming for regime change. However, the American political analysts believe that Trump may talk of taking over Cuba, but he may not take any adventurist action at this time when he is neck deep in Iran war.
According to the industry watchers in Washington, Trump is basically interested in making the Cuban investment policies favourable for the leading American companies including his own. Democrats say that Trump family’s company is interested in the real estate development in the Bay areas in Cuba as also within the cities. With the energy blockade, Washington now wants to force Cuba into economic reforms that benefit U.S. companies. It seeks access to strategic sectors such as energy, ports, tourism, and telecoms. In return, it expects far-reaching liberalization: larger private companies, the opening up of the banking system, and the dismantling of state monopolies. Cuban Communist Party leadership headed by President Miguel Diaz Canel is making all efforts to unite the nation behind the present regime but the task is getting tougher as the people are really facing shortages for a long period.
However, Trump regime now knows that despite all efforts by CIA backed agencies, a big uprising against the present Cuban government is not possible. American sources are even mentioning that Cuban people are certainly hard pressed but their anger is more against the U.S. and its blockade rather than their own government. President Miguel has welcomed dialogue with the Trump administration while defending the sovereignty of Cuban nation. It is to be seen that whether Washington takes forward the back channel discussions to ease blockade further or goes back to Trump’s imperial mission for regime change. (IPA Service)
