By Girish Linganna
Pakistan's efforts to purchase advanced stealth fighters from China could compel India to expedite its air force upgrade, possibly through the acquisition of F-35 jets from the United States. This move would be aimed at maintaining tactical air superiority along its frontiers, according to experts.
Pakistan Air Force's top official, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber, stated on January 2 that they have started the process to buy the Chinese FC-31 Gyrfalcon, a modern stealth fighter jet, and expect to get it soon.
He didn't give details on the number of Chinese fighter jets the Pakistan Air Force is purchasing or their delivery timeline. However, there is speculation from some experts that as many as 36 planes might be received by the end of this decade.
Mustafa Hyder, who heads the Pakistan-China Institute in Islamabad, mentioned that Pakistan's decision to buy the FC-31 Gyrfalcon highlights the growing military and defense partnership with China in South Asia, mainly against India, who they both view as a common challenge. He also said this move shows their combined effort to counter any threats from India.
“Harsh V. Pant, a professor at King's College London, told SCMP that the deal might prompt India to more actively consider purchasing F-35s. Additionally, he noted that India is speeding up its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft program, aiming to develop its stealth fighter by 2032,” as reported by SCMP.
The FC-31 Gyrfalcon is also known as the J-31 or J-35, as it hasn't received an official name from Beijing yet. This is due to the absence of formal orders for the aircraft.
The Shenyang Aircraft Corporation is still working on prototypes of the Gyrfalcon, but it's widely anticipated that the Chinese navy will adopt it within the next five years, likely under the name J-35. This is expected for use on China's expanding number of aircraft carriers.
Air Chief Baber called the aircraft “J-31,” which probably refers to its land-based version. This model has been actively promoted by China to foreign governments that can't get advanced military technology from Western countries due to political reasons. China has chosen not to offer its operational fifth-generation J-20 “Mighty Dragon” fighter jet for international sales.
Since the 1960s, India has been involved in multiple conflicts with both China and Pakistan, related to disputes over their borders, which extend over more than 6,800 kilometres.
Each of the three nations – India, China, and Pakistan – has a significant collection of nuclear weapons, which could make South Asia a central location for a potential global conflict in the future.
Frank O'Donnell, a senior research adviser at the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, a think tank in Seoul, noted that Pakistan deploying a fifth-generation stealth fighter, which the Indian Air Force currently lacks, would provide Pakistan with a tactical edge, especially in air-to-air combat situations.
Pakistan's strong military ties with China allow it to obtain and incorporate advanced aircraft much faster than India, which has a more slow-moving bureaucratic system.
According to Frank O'Donnell, who is also associated with the Stimson Centre, a Washington-based think tank, despite the Indian Air Force acquiring 36 Rafale jets from France's Dassault Aviation recently, its modernization hasn't matched the rate at which its existing fleet is aging. Consequently, the IAF currently has about 30 to 32 squadrons, well below its target of 42 squadrons.
It is anticipated that India will shortly declare the purchase of an additional 26 Rafale jets for use on its aircraft carrier.
O'Donnell mentioned that for advancement in this area, India needs to show political will to make its defense procurement process more efficient and to clear bureaucratic hurdles, something which hasn't been adequately demonstrated so far.
The Indian Air Force faces a deficit of around 200 aircraft, which is needed to address the combined challenges from China and its ally Pakistan. This gap is only expected to be reduced by half by the mid-2030s, according to the IAF.
In reaction to India's purchase of Rafale jets, Pakistan bought 25 Chengdu J-10C “Vigorous Dragon” aircraft in 2022. The last group of these planes was officially added to their fleet at the ceremony on January 2, where PAF Chief Baber spoke.
Analysts suggest that while Pakistan's main reason for buying advanced Chinese fighter jets is to defend against India's larger military, China views this as a chance to respond to India's increasing political and defense ties with the United States, especially within the framework of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which also involves Japan and Australia.
Mustafa Hyder of the Pakistan-China Institute mentioned to SCMP that India has received financial and military backing to serve as a balance against China in Asia, moving away from its usual policy of non-alignment.
It's becoming more evident and successful how China and Pakistan are joining forces to protect their security interests and sovereignty, and to counter India's dominance. India doesn't seem too concerned about Pakistan getting Chinese stealth jets, as the FC-31 is still under development.
Pant from King's College London pointed out, “It's key to note that the FC-31 is still being developed. It's somewhat behind schedule, and in the long run, this deal could be more beneficial to China than to Pakistan.”
Pant, who leads the strategic studies program at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, explained that Pakistan had to turn to China for advanced fighter jets to replace its old fleet of 75 American F-16s. He noted this was because Pakistan recognizes the difficulties in its long-term relationship with the U.S.
O'Donnell suggested that Washington would probably not be very surprised by Pakistan's intention to acquire the J-31. He believes this is expected, considering Pakistan's history of significantly incorporating Chinese military equipment.
Pakistan and China have collaborated to manufacture about 150 JF-17 “Thunder” lightweight fighters for the Pakistani Air Force, aiming to replace its old French Mirage planes. The most recent Mk III model of the JF-17 boasts capabilities of the 4.5-generation standard.
Pakistan has purchased Type-054 guided-missile frigates and Type-041 diesel-electric submarines from China. O'Donnell mentioned that these submarines are widely anticipated to be a key component of Pakistan's future naval nuclear capabilities.
O'Donnell added that if the J-31 deal goes through, the United States would likely see it as further evidence of the deepening and enduring military relationship between China and Pakistan.
(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru.)
