A government-appointed scientific committee has said the Covid-19 epidemic seems to have peaked and is now on the decline, and is likely to run its course by February next year.
The committee, headed by Professor M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, has used computer models to map the trajectory of the epidemic in the country. Its key finding has been that the disease is likely to have peaked in the middle of September, and the total number of infections in India is unlikely to exceed 106 lakh (10.6 million). So far, 75 lakh people in India have been infected, of which nearly 66 lakh have recovered.
The committee claimed that the lockdown imposed in March has had a powerful impact on slowing down the spread of the disease in the country. In the absence of the lockdown, the death count would have gone up to 25 lakh, it said. As of now, 1.14 lakh people have died in India because of the disease. However, further lockdowns are “undesirable”, the committee has recommended since they are unlikely to have any significant impact.
The committee has said the upcoming festival season, and the approaching winters, might “increase the susceptibility” of the people to this infection, and therefore, has recommended that current protective measures must be continued.
India reported a daily jump of 61,871 coronavirus infections in 24 hours, taking its tally near the 75-lakh mark, the Health Ministry data this morning showed. The number of cases in the country now stands at 74,94,551. The total number of recoveries have surged to 65,97,209. While the number of active cases remained below eight lakh for the second consecutive day, India continues to be the second-worst hit nation. The COVID-19 recovery rate in the country has improved to 88.03 per cent, the Health Ministry said.
