New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday raised India’s economic growth projection to 7.3 per cent for the 2025-26 fiscal year, marking an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point from its October forecast, citing better-than-expected economic performance.
The Washington-based multilateral agency also revised India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate for 2026-27 to 6.4 per cent, up from the earlier projection of 6.2 per cent, according to its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) update.
“In India, growth is revised upward by 0.7 percentage point to 7.3 per cent for 2025 (fiscal FY26), reflecting the better-than-expected outturn in the third quarter of the year and strong momentum in the fourth quarter,” the IMF said. It added that growth is expected to moderate to 6.4 per cent in 2026-27 and 2027-28 as cyclical and temporary factors fade.
According to the Ministry of Statistics, India’s GDP grew by 8 per cent during April–September 2025-26, supported by a robust 8.2 per cent expansion in the July–September quarter. The economy is projected to grow by 7.4 per cent in the current fiscal year, as per the First Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, compared to 6.5 per cent growth in 2024-25.
On inflation, the IMF said price pressures are expected to return close to target levels following a sharp decline in 2025, driven largely by softer food prices. The Reserve Bank of India targets headline CPI inflation at 4 per cent, with a tolerance band of two percentage points on either side.
Globally, the IMF projected growth to remain resilient at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, with a slight upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 from the October 2025 outlook. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to hover just above 4 per cent in both years.
China’s growth forecast for 2025 was revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 5 per cent. Global headline inflation is projected to ease from an estimated 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027. (Agencies)
