NEW DELHI, Sep 16: Global oil and gas fields are depleting at an accelerating pace, forcing producers to spend more just to sustain current output, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in a new report.
The report, The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates, cautioned that the trend heightens supply and price risks, particularly for heavily import-dependent countries like India. Delays in new projects could undermine India’s energy security, underscoring the urgency of diversification, domestic exploration, and clean energy alternatives.
IEA data show that nearly 90% of annual upstream oil and gas investments are now required to offset natural declines in existing fields, with only a small share expanding supply. Without fresh investment, global oil output would shrink by 5.5 million barrels per day each year, while gas output would fall 270 billion cubic metres annually.
“Decline rates are the elephant in the room for any discussion of investment needs in oil and gas, and our new analysis shows they have accelerated in recent years,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “The industry has to run much faster just to stand still.”
The report highlighted sharp contrasts: giant onshore fields in the Middle East decline at under 2% annually, while Europe’s offshore fields fall over 15%. Shale and tight oil wells show the steepest declines—dropping over 35% in the first year without reinvestment.
To keep output steady through 2050, the IEA estimated more than 45 million barrels per day of oil and nearly 2,000 bcm of new conventional gas capacity will be needed—equivalent to the combined output of the world’s top three producers. (Agencies)
