Narendra Modi still resisting US market access to dairy and milk but pressure is too high
By T N Ashok
NEW YORK: US President Donald Trump is emerging as a parallel to the WTO which we could eponymously call the “American Trade Organisation” — ATO — with his Art of the Deal with Indonesia, Japan and now EU. ATO is a unique organization that Trump has crafted where there is no dispute resolution mechanism as in WTO, and only direct negotiations and no 3rd party intervention or judgement. In such trade negotiations, America will be the prosecutor, the judge and the jury.
Most countries don’t have much of an option because, U.S. happens to be their largest trading partner for their exports. Accept or Perish is the mantra for these countries to survive in the short run. What happens in 2029 is another story, whether the new government under a new president under a new party will honour or continue the Trumpian pacts is an open ended question.
For the time being, there is relief from the mind boggling tariff pressure from Trump.. With China, Trump achieved a temporary deal in his anxiety to steal a deal on access to rare earth minerals, while limiting or blocking their access to semiconductor technology on fears from the US intelligence sources that China might divert it for defence or aggressive military applications. China’s pushing hard, nevertheless.
For the moment there is a deal on the table — 15% tariffs for US goods to enter China and 30% for Chinese goods to enter the USA. The mind boggling auction type tariffs of 30% to 250% is over, though Trump held it as only a threat and not really for execution.
As it is, his tariffs have pushed up inflation in the U.S. and made many products including groceries pricier on the shelves. Naturally Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whom he wants to fire, is holding the interest rates in his anxiety not to push inflation to double digits.
Trump expects South Korea and other Asian nations to follow suit. Deal with Indonesia and Japan is the template he wants to follow for all trade deals.
That brings us to India. What’s holding up the mega “ $530 billion” deal. Trump is pushing hard for greater market access to US agricultural products at lower tariffs — but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is resisting for fear, it would jeopardise the interests of Indian farmers. PM’s concern is also Gujarat where the BJP is ruling on the basis of dairy and milk producing farmers. Their interests will be adversely affected if the Americans are allowed market access to dairy and milk sector.
Modi is also afraid of compromising on Indian pharma exports to the US — India and China are the biggest pharma intermediary and generic drugs exporters — where the US is pushing hard to increase tariffs to make Indian diabetic and cardiovascular drugs less competitive than the US ones. For instance, a diabetic drug would cost just $100 on a monthly budget for an Indian drug company, compared to $1,000 of an American pharma.
India also wants a pie of the burgeoning weight loss drug market in the USA which has a potential of $150 billion. Leading Indian companies such as Dr Reddy’s Labs, Cipla to name a few are making a beeline with generic drugs that would cost a fraction of what leading American pharmas are selling.
Right now, the US-EU trade deal after the bilateral framework ones with UK, Indonesia and Japan is making news. India is next on the chopping block. The WTO has been crying foul ever since the US blocked its attempts to appoint judges. The WTO which was set up after long negotiations between trading nations including USA, has been turned irrelevant by Trump. His ATO is the new unilateral body deciding on the trade deals.
The way Trump forced the EU to enter into its trade deal with USA shows how even the powerful European nations feel helpless before the Rambo of the global trade. Trump met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, at Turnberry in Scotland , after playing golf, to announce a trade framework agreement that imposes 15% tariffs on most EU imports, a compromise far lower than his previous threat of 30% across the board. ATO clinches deals on golf courses.
In return, the EU pledged to purchase roughly $750 billion in U.S. energy, invest $600 billion into U.S. industries, and open up to zero-tariff access for U.S. exports across the 27-nation bloc—though specific quotas and regulatory adjustments remain to be finalized. Trump emphasized the deal’s scale: “I think it’s the biggest deal ever made,” noting it brings “stability” and “predictability” to transatlantic commerce.
On July 28, Trump welcomed UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at his Turnberry resort in Scotland. Their hour‑long meeting—complete with ceremonial bagpipe greeting—covered trade, Gaza, Ukraine, and digital freedoms.
The pair reaffirmed their May “framework” agreement, under which the U.S. reduced tariffs on 100,000 UK‑made cars to 10%, created quotas for steel and aluminium, and boosted UK beef and ethanol imports to the US. Starmer pressed Trump to ease 25% U.S. tariffs on Scotch whisky and British steel, but Trump signalled no rollback on steel and aluminium duties, fearing it would set a global precedent.
Trump’s trade framework with the EU follows a similar UK deal in May, both reflecting his “reciprocal tariffs” doctrine—a base rate of 10%, modified by country agreements. Critics argue these deals maintain hidden protectionism and preserve reciprocal leverage rather than determine open liberalized trade.
The EU‑U.S. deal averts an immediate tariff escalation—and potential tit-for-tat retaliation on $93 billion of U.S. exports—yet many EU countries view it with cautious optimism, worried the agreement may tilt toward U.S. gains, particularly in energy and industrial exports.
Trump attacked the UK’s Online Safety Act, warning against censorship of his platform, Truth Social. Starmer assured he would uphold online freedom. Discussion also touched on immigration, fracking, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and U.S. interest-rate policy—from which Trump urged Fed Chair Powell to cut rates before his term ends.
In his new position on sanctions, Trump has advanced the use of secondary sanctions targeting India and China for purchasing Russian oil—seeking to pressure secondary markets to sever energy ties with Moscow. Although direct sanctions have not yet been invoked, officials say these measures hinge on upcoming trade talks with both Asian powers.
Under this escalation, India and China could face financial penalties, trade restrictions, or access limitations to U.S. financial markets if they continue buying Russian crude—tying into Trump’s broader attempt to force a resolution in Ukraine.
India has resisted the secondary sanctions with its Oil & Gas Minister Hardeep Puri affirming: India buys oil from whoever it likes (without mentioning Russia by name) in its national interests towards energy security. Even if such sanctions are imposed, India has a reserve of 25 days supplies.
India resorted to buying Russian oil leveraging on the Ukraine war to diversify its supplies from traditional ones in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq, the main lifeline. India was able to make millions of dollars in such a diversification and does not want to lose this monetary advantage.
Trump’s targeting of India and China over Russian oil purchases marks a departure from unilateral sanctions solely on Moscow. It ties into his wider effort to incentivize allies and major consumers to participate in economic restraint against Russia.
Trump’s messaging & massaging nations for sweet deals
Domestically, Trump is framing these negotiations as evidence of his dealmaking mastery: avoiding trade wars, winning billions in investments, and pushing humanitarian action. Internationally, he continues a transactional, personality‑driven model: host world leaders at his golf resorts, strike headline deals, then predictably revert to unpredictability.
For Starmer, the meeting represents both opportunity and risk: alignment with U.S. trade gains promotes UK economic interests, but standing firm on Gaza aid and refusing wholesale concessions on tariffs sends reassurance to British and European publics wary of Trump-style unilateralism.
From Ukraine peace timelines to secondary oil sanctions, humanitarian efforts in Gaza, and new trade frameworks with both the EU and UK, Trump’s recent moves underscore a global policy shift: aggressive leverage, fast‑track diplomacy, and relentless pursuit of domestic optics.
Whether his moves ultimately stabilize or destabilize global politics, governance in Europe, and frontline crises remains to be seen—but July 2025 has positioned Trump once again as the center of a volatile and consequential global pivot. (IPA Service)
