By Pushp Saraf
The five key takeaways from the 2024 Lok Sabha polls to five seats in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir are:
(a)These elections were the first major ones following the bifurcation and downgrading of the J&K State, along with the revocation of its special status under Article 370 on August 5, 2019.They also marked the first elections after the 2022 delimitation of constituencies, which for the first time created a parliamentary constituency, Anantnag-Rajouri, spanning both regions of J&K. The outcomes aligned with expectations, revealing a division in sentiment: One camp supports the Centre’s decisions to abrogate Articles 370 and 35A and bifurcate the J&K State into the Union Territories of J&K and Ladakh, while the other camp opposes these moves. This polarisation is reflected primarily along religious lines, affecting the Hindu and Muslim communities.
(b) This sentiment is likely to persist during the first ever Assembly elections for the UT of J&K to be held before September 30. These elections are expected to be fiercely contested with each political party vying for power.
(c) The People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), better known as the Gupkar Alliance, comprising mainly the National Conference (NC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) has collapsed. Even if it is revived for the Assembly polls it will lack the credibility and influence necessary for a serious political coalition with major goals.
(d) The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has yet to make any inroads in the politically important Kashmir Valley. The party did not contest any of the Valley’s three seats, and its allies and perceived allies, such as Ghulam Nabi Azad (Democratic Progressive Azad Party). Sajjad Ghani Lone (People’s Conference), and Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari (Apni Party), have failed to gain traction; and,
(e) The BJP maintains its stronghold in the Hindu-majority areas of the Jammu region, with the exceptions of Suchetgarh and Ranbir Singh Pura Jammu South assembly segments. However, it has experienced a decline in popular support. Conversely, the Congress party has seen resurgence, gaining momentum following its improved performance in the recent Parliamentary elections across the country.
The Supreme Court has set September 30 as the deadline for holding the Assembly elections making it the definitive closing date for this delayed exercise. Local factors play a more significant role in the Assembly elections compared to the Parliamentary polls. That is the prime distinction between these two types of electoral exercises.
Undercurrent of resentment
At a micro level, there is a strong undercurrent of resentment against the abolition of J&K’s special status and statehood, particularly in the Kashmir Valley and Muslim-dominated areas of the Jammu region. Discontent is also prevalent among the non-Muslim population over the elimination of statehood. An analysis of the Lok Sabha electoral results shows that the National Conference (NC), which advocates for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood, led in 34 out of 54 Assembly segments across the three Lok Sabha seats it contested. This includes 27 of the 47 segments in the Valley and 7 in the Muslim majority Poonch and Rajouri districts in the Jammu region. Out of the total 90 Assembly segments in the UT, the NC supported the Congress in the Jammu and Udhampur constituencies in the Jammu region with 18 Assembly segments each.
Engineer Abdul Rashid Sheikh of the Awami lttehad Party (AlP) achieved a notable victory by leading in 14 Assembly segments within the Baramulla constituency of the Valley. Despite contesting from jail, he caused a major upset by defeating NC Vice-President and former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. Interestingly, both Rashid and Omar share similar views on the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the J&K State. Rashid’s imprisonment evidently generated a sympathy wave that contributed to his success.
The BJP led in 29 segments, the Congress in 7, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 5, and the People’s Conference (Sajjad Lone) in one.
The gains made by the two national parties, the BJP and the Congress, are confined to the Jammu region where they are principal rivals.
If the same trend continues in the Assembly polls, it is clear that no single party will be in a position to form the government. However, there may be significant variations. For instance, the emphatic victory of Engineer Rashid could inspire more individuals in similar circumstances to enter the electoral fray in September. Since August 5, 2019, when the Centre abrogated Article 370 and divided and downgraded the J&K State, hundreds of people have been imprisoned. Some of them, if eligible, may choose to contest from the prison. If they attract the same level of sympathy that Rashid has evoked, they could disrupt the prospects of more established political parties like the NC and the PDP in the Valley in particular. This could, in turn, transform the overall political scene and radically influence the formation of the first-ever elected government of the UT.
BJP’s struggle with respect to the Valley
The BJP is struggling to make political inroads into the Kashmir Valley. Even in its traditional strongholds in the Jammu region, its base appears to be somewhat weakening. This is evident from its overall voting percentage. In the Jammu parliamentary constituency, the BJP experienced a 4.56 percent decline in vote share in 2024, compared to an 8.68 percent increase in 2019 and a significant 18.46 percent jump in 2014 when Narendra Modi was first projected as the party’s prime ministerial candidate.
On the other hand, the Congress’s vote share has increased by 5.39 percent in 2024, following an 8.67 percent rise in 2019 (despite suffering defeat) after a 16.38 percent decline in 2014. In Udhampur, another constituency retained by the BJP, its overall voting percentage saw a steep 10.10 percent decline in 2024, following increases of 14.60 percent in 20 19 and 11 .07 percent in 2014.
Conversely, the Congress gained 9.01 percent in 2024 after experiencing a 9.83 percent decline in 2019 and a 3.03 percent gain in 2014 (though it lost the polls even then).
The electorate has shown no respect for reputations in the Lok Sabha polls. Omar Abdullah is not the only former Chief Minister to have lost. Another former Chief Minister and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti has been defeated in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency. A third former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad first announced his candidature for the Anantnag-Rajouri seat but then beat a hasty retreat apparently realising discretion was the better part of the valour.
Azad’s first electoral venture after falling out with the Congress and the Nehru-Gandhi family, with whom he had enjoyed a close relationship, ended in utter failure. He founded the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), which lost its security deposit in all three seats it contested. He actively campaigned and organised public meetings almost all over the UT. Of all smaller parties, the DPAP performed the worst.
On the whole these were high-pitched electoral contests. There were clashes between top national political parties in the Jammu region. Powerful regional parties took on each other in the Valley. This left little room for smaller entities which were crushed. Of the 100 candidates, only 11 were able to save their security deposits and they included five winners: Main Altaf and Aga Ruhullah (NC), Engineer Rashid (independent), Jugal Kishore Sharma and Jitendra Singh (BJP). The others who saved their security were Omar Abdullah (NC), Mehbooba Mufti (PDP) and her party candidate Waheed Para (who contested the Srinagar seat), Sajjad Lone (PC) and Raman Bhalla and Lal Singh (Congress).
In the Anantnag-Rajouri seat which Azad had originally chosen for himself his candidate Mohammad Saleem Parray did not cross the 3-digit mark in 11 Assembly segments. Likewise the Apni Party of businessman-politician Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari failed to gain a lead in any of the assembly segments including in Anantnag-Rajouri. This was despite being backed by the BJP which has a sound base particularly in the Rajouri segment.
Dramatic change possible
The entire scenario including numbers and performances could undergo a dramatic transformation in the Assembly polls. In the Valley especially one may have to keep one’s fingers crossed. Who all are the candidates there and whose blessings they enjoy is important given Engineer Rashid’s example.
The NC and the PDP together would have been a much greater force had they stayed together in the PAGD which was set up to work for the restoration of the pre-August 5, 2019 status. The Alliance was formed on August 4, 2019 at the Gupkar Road (Srinagar) residence of NC patriarch Farooq Abdullah when it became clear with from the massive deployment of security forces in the Valley that the BJP Government at the Centre was planning a major move vis a-vis J&K.
The PAGD was based on the resolve:”That all the parties would be united in their resolve to protect and defend the identity, autonomy and special status of J&K against all attacks onslaughts whatsoever” and “that modifications, abrogation of Articles 35A, 370, unconstitutional delimitation or trifurcation of the State would be an aggression against the people of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh.” As one member after the other left the Alliance, the NC, PDP, CPI-M and the Awami National Conference (ANC) had kept it alive (“Lok Sabha polls in J&K”, Border Affairs April- June 2024).
The PAGD, however, faltered when the time came for to make its presence felt during the Lok Sabha polls. The partisan ambitions took over. The NC decided to contest on its own steam claiming its performance in the 2019 polls as the justification. As the situation turned out to be the NC, CPI-M and the ANC were on the same side of the fence, the PDP was effectively sidelined.
Now that the PDP has not won any of the three seats it contested and Mehbooba Mufti herself has lost, the party may face further isolation. As a result, its discomfiture continues having begun with the desertions of many of its top leaders to the Sajjad Lone and Altaf Bukhari camps which are thought to be in the good books of the powers-that-be in New Delhi.
The PDP has begun rebuilding its edifice. This process may take some time.
Scenario in Jammu
In the Jammu region the NC has demonstrated its strength in the hills where its candidate Mian Altaf, who has emerged as a top Gujjar leader in his own right and is son of the late Mian Bashir, a formidable political and spiritual figure, swept all seven assembly segments of Poonch and Rajouri districts which are part of the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency. It was the first election in the constituency which is the only one spread over both regions of the UT. The Congress partly owes its leads in a few seats in the Doda hills in the Udhampur constituency on the other side of the Chinab River to the NC as the two parties have moved in tandem as part of the opposition INDI Alliance (The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc. Although the PDP is also part of the INDI Alliance, it appears to have been pushed into the background at least for now.
In the plains, the BJP has maintained dominance over the past two decades. It has wrested this position from the Congress over the years and built a strong base with a committed cadre. However, the BJP’s stronghold is now facing challenges.
For the first time in years, the Congress is showing signs of recovery. This shift is occurring even as the public strongly supports the repeal of Article 370 unlike in the Valley which has taken a contrasting position. This apparent contradiction can be linked to widespread public disillusionment driven by several factors: the prolonged delay in restoring statehood, the escalating cost of living and the increasingly empty promises of party leaders about addressing the basic needs of the people.
In Jammu city, there has been a noticeable decline in business opportunities, particularly within the hotel sector, and in the trade of dry fruits and local and Kashmiri handicrafts. Previously, the city thrived as an important stop for lakhs of pilgrims on their way to the holy cave of Vaishno Devi. However, devotees now increasingly bypass Jammu. They prefer to travel directly to Katra, the shrine’s base camp situated about 40 kilometers away, thanks to improved road and rail connectivity. Further challenging the economy is the resurgence of terrorism in the time between the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections.
(The writer is a noted political commentator
on Jammu Kashmir & Ladakh, veteran
Journalist and a freelancer for numerous national and foreign publications)
