Rattan Singh Gill
After an interim breather, the Centre has finally turned its attention towards the political void prevailing in Jammu Kashmir to stir inertia. Union Government has invited 14 leaders from eight political parties (five regional and three state units of national parties), that included four former chief ministers and four former deputy chief ministers, to attend a meeting on June 24th convened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at New Delhi to set the political process in motion in Jammu Kashmir. Though the Peoples' Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) stands ignored by the centre, yet the balance of invitees is tilted towards Kashmir valley as there is no regional party of political significance in Jammu Region and BJP has suo-motto taken over the control of representing aspirations of the Jammu Region.
According to the sources, the groundwork and assessment on security and political situation have been certainly done by the centre that culminated into a high-profile meeting at Delhi on June 18 by the Union Home Minister, Amit Shah prior to the announcement. There have been brisk street talks in Jammu Kashmir and elsewhere that the Centre was poised to strike something big on Jammu Kashmir and the social media has been overwhelmed with suppositions, speculations and anticipations smelling the things like ‘the fate of delimitation' to ‘restoration of statehood' to ‘assembly elections' and also to ‘further division of the J&K Union Territory'.
Amidst the gossips galore that amused some and confused many others in Kashmir, Jammu, Delhi and at Islamabad alike, much kite flying has been done.
What's significant is breaking the ice by the centre in extending an invite to Kashmir leadership and their meeting with Prime Minister may serve as a first step towards normalizing the situation in Kashmir valley which otherwise brews with anguish beneath the surface since August 05, 2019. It may provide a window to political entities in the valley to give vent to their feelings and perceptions before the prime minister.
Welcoming the announcement by the political circles, most of the invited leaders have indicated their willingness to participate in the scheduled meeting but before that, they would interact within their respective parties and further with each other to arrive at a unified, mature and receptive response in the meeting with the Prime Minister. Thankfully, the leadership from Kashmir is good at such high-level political discourses and they know well that their amiability would ensure the dialogue channels to remain open for further interaction with the Centre. This aspect can be easily vouched when one goes through the text of statements of Gupkar Declaration and others that followed, avoiding extreme reactions like that of Mehbooba Mufti's.
It seems that Dr. Farooq Abdullah has maturely led the other constituents of the Gupkar Declaration to confine the keywords of the content “to unconstitutional move” and for taking on “constitutional fight” thus toning down the extreme reactions of belligerent Mehbooba's ‘dacoits', “robbery and humiliation.” This may pay some dividend in facilitating the talks in a cordial atmosphere.
Keeping in view the disposition of Prime Minister Narendra Modi usually being cool, calm and composed in such matters, the interaction would surely help in some confidence-building among the leadership from Kashmir valley to find out some converging point. The Prime Minister in all likelihood will listen more than speak, he and his aides may read the minds of engaged leaders particularly from Kashmir and assess the situation to set the dialogue process further. While the talks may cover the grievances on incapacitating Article 370, abrogation of Article 35A and downsizing the status of J&K state into a union territory and its political backlash in J&K, any reversal on these except for statehood are ruled out.
Then, the restoration of statehood may take its own time at the convenience of the centre, but it would surely persuade the leaders to participate, in the meanwhile, in the Delimitation process, Assembly elections and to facilitate the return of Kashmir Pandits to the Valley. The government has declared its commitment to the return of Kashmir Pandits to Kashmir by 2022 which they are keen to implement. The Centre may further allow the leadership from Kashmir, some leverage to carry on their narrative in public on return of special status to J&K with some rider like avoiding secessionism and behaving as a proxy for India's neighbours. This may yield for them an element of political cushioning in public.
Though there seems no pre-condition for talks from either side, however, the centre must have some clear agenda to address the ongoing political vacuum to pave the way for constructive engagement of the people to its planned future economic and developmental initiatives in J&K.
For the leaders of Kashmir valley, this may be the first opportunity to get engaged with the centre and to vent their anguish formally before the Prime Minister on August 5, 2019 decisions and to impress upon the PM to do and undo some important things invoking Vajpayee's assurances which they can offer to the people in Kashmir to restore their confidence and which should also help keep their political relevance among the people for switching to reconciliatory mode.
Whether this happens or not, all depends upon the turn of events in days to come and we all know the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi is known for springing surprises, however, it would be a turning point in Kashmir affairs.
