By Ajay Kumar, Lucknow
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has been out of power in Uttar Pradesh for nearly 15 years. After remaining in power from 2007 to 2012, the BSP has faced defeat in the last three Assembly elections. During this period, its performance in three Lok Sabha elections has also been extremely poor. As a result, a general perception began to take shape that BSP supremo Mayawati’s political era was coming to an end. This perception was further strengthened by the fact that Mayawati had largely withdrawn from active election campaigning.If we look back at the electoral strategy of the BSP when it last won the Assembly elections in 2007, that victory was achieved through Mayawati’s much-discussed social engineering formula. The 2007 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election marked a historic moment, as the BSP registered an unexpected landslide victory. Mayawati successfully captured 206 out of 403 seats, securing a total vote share of 30.43 percent. This victory was made possible not only by the party’s traditional Dalit vote bank, but also by the support of Brahmins, some non-Yadav Other Backward Classes, and Muslim voters. However, it is also true that this formula could not be successfully replicated in subsequent elections.
Nevertheless, nearly 20 years later, ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections, signs are once again visible of the consolidation of Dalit votes along with support from Brahmins and Muslims in favor of the BSP. An analysis of why Brahmins and Muslims are once again gravitating toward the BSP suggests that during the Yogi Adityanath regime, Brahmins feel they are being treated unfairly. From the bureaucracy to the government, Brahmins believe they are being sidelined from important positions. This sentiment explains the recent surge in the entry of Brahmin leaders into the BSP.In January 2026, senior BJP leader Radheshyam Pandey from Ambedkar Nagar joined the BSP along with 51 to 100 Brahmin supporters after meeting Mayawati. In December 2025, prominent Brahmin leaders such as Jitendra Mishra, Deepak Dwivedi, Neeraj Pandey, Vishal Mishra, Vaibhav Dubey, Anurag Shukla, and Mohit Sharma left the BJP to join the BSP. This development was seen as a significant setback for the BJP ahead of the 2027 elections. In January 2026, another major Brahmin leader also met Mayawati and joined the BSP.
Muslims, on the other hand, appear to be turning once again toward the BSP because they feel that the Samajwadi Party seeks their votes but does not give them their due rights. Similarly, during times of crisis, Akhilesh Yadav is perceived to distance himself from Muslims. The case of senior SP leader Azam Khan, who was allegedly left to fend for himself, is often cited as the biggest example. The deaths of strongmen Atiq Ahmed and Mukhtar Ansari are also, in some sections of the Muslim community, attributed to Akhilesh Yadav. They believe that had Akhilesh not provoked Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath over Atiq and Mukhtar during Assembly sessions, they might still be alive today.Dalit voters extended overwhelming support to the BSP. As many as 86 percent of voters from the Jatav community chose Mayawati, while 71 percent of Valmiki voters preferred the party. From the Pasi community, 53 percent voted for the BSP, and 58 percent of other Scheduled Castes also supported it. This strong grip over Dalit sub-castes provided the party with a solid base, especially since Dalits constitute about 21 percent of Uttar Pradesh’s population.
Among upper castes, Brahmins extended 16 percent support, which proved decisive. The BSP fielded 51 Brahmin candidates, of whom 20 won, although this success was largely driven by lower-caste votes. Thakurs and other upper castes also made a limited but significant contribution.Backward classes also leaned toward the BSP. Around 30 percent of non-Yadav and non-Kurmi Other Backward Class voters supported the party. Votes from several OBC segments strengthened the social coalition. The BSP fielded 110 OBC candidates. This support was the result of voters drifting away from the Samajwadi Party and other parties, influenced by promises of development and good governance.The contribution of Muslim voters proved the most remarkable. In 2007, Muslim votes accounted for more than 10 percent of the BSP’s total vote share. According to one survey, 17 percent of Muslims supported the party. The BSP fielded 61 Muslim candidates, of whom 29 became MLAs. Despite Muslims constituting about 19 percent of Uttar Pradesh’s population, this level of support proved crucial in securing a majority. Disillusioned with the Samajwadi Party, Muslim voters gave the BSP an opportunity, encouraged by Mayawati’s promises of minority welfare.
Mayawati’s strategy broke traditional caste barriers. While the Dalit–Brahmin alliance was widely discussed, in reality the electoral miracle was achieved through the combined support of Jatavs, Valmikis, Pasis, other Scheduled Castes, 30 percent of backward classes, 16 percent of Brahmins, and 17 percent of Muslims. The BSP’s vote share rose from 23 percent in 2002 to 30 percent in 2007. The party wooed upper castes through Prabuddh Varg conferences, while performing strongly in Muslim-dominated constituencies. This victory became an example of social justice.After coming to power, Mayawati curbed crime and accelerated development work. However, the fine balance of caste equations gave politics a new dimension. The Dalit core vote remained between 80 and 86 percent, 16 to 20 candidates from upper castes won, backward classes provided around 30 percent support, and Muslims contributed 17 percent, ensuring a clear majority.
Recent developments show how BSP supremo Mayawati is once again playing the Pandit card. Her growing inclination toward Brahmins is evident from her stance on the new University Grants Commission rules, which caused resentment among upper castes, especially Brahmins, and from her prompt support of Brahmins in the controversy surrounding the Bollywood film Ghooskhor Pandit.Earlier, while reacting cautiously to the new UGC rules, Mayawati had said that no one should be harassed unnecessarily under the new law. Amid nationwide protests against the film Ghooskhor Pandit, BSP national president Mayawati demanded a ban on the film, thereby clearly playing the Brahmin card. The BJP, which found itself uncomfortable over the UGC issue, is now also trying to placate Brahmins through the film controversy. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath directed the registration of an FIR against the film, signaling support for this community.
On Friday, February 6, Mayawati wrote on X that it is a matter of great sorrow and concern that for some time now, not only in UP but even in films, Pandits are being portrayed as corrupt and infiltrators, leading to their humiliation and disrespect across the country. This has caused immense anger among the entire Brahmin community. The BSP strongly condemns this and demands that the central government immediately ban this casteist film.In 2007, the BSP had used social engineering with Brahmins to form a majority government. This time too, the party is preparing for elections on the same formula, and Mayawati’s X post is being seen as a clear indication of moving forward with that very strategy.
(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist at Lucknow and can be reached at Mob:- 9335566111)
