Omkar Dattatray
With Israel poised to attack Iran,having already blindsided friends and foes alike with its blitz against Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement ,all the talk is of an inexorable slide towards a new,pan –Middle Eastern war.yet brakes remain to halt a regional fall into a wider conflagration that would lock Israel and Tehran into escalating conflict and suck in other nations,according to several people with experience in intelligence and military decision –making .Israel is unlikely to flinch from launching an aerial barrage on Iran as soon as in the coming days in retaliation for Tehran’s decision to launch 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday’’.Whoever attacks us-we attack them,’’said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his security cabinet ,summing his doctrine of deterrence. As tensions escalate ,both nations face a critical juncture.The choices made now could lead to devastating repercussions for the entire region.Following the alleged involvement in the Lebanon pager blast ,which specifically targeted Hezbollah’s upper echelons,Israel has initiated an extensive air campaign against the group ,leading to the reported assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in an operation codenamed’’New Order.’’This military strategy ,characterized by attrition and limited ground operations ,echoes the tactics employed during the 2006 Israel-Iran conflict.In an unprecedented attack,the Iranian revolutionary Guard Group and the Iranian army launched approximately 180 missiles at Israel .Iran claimed the responsibility for targeting three air force bases and Mossad headquarters ,in retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah,the new Islamic Republican Guard Corps commander in Syria –Lebanon ,and senior Hams leader Ismail Haniyeh.While most of the missiles were intercepted through cooperation between Israel ,the US and Jordan,a few dozen managed to strike military and civilian targets ,resulting in limited physical damage and minor loss of life.We are now one step closer to a direct war between Israel and Iran ,a conflict whose effects will ripple throughout the Middle East and beyond.Such a conflict would have potentially devastating consequences.,both conventional and nuclear.Time is not on the regions side ,and every effort must be made to ensure that decisions on this matter are not made rashly.Unlike the previous Iranian attack on Israel in April ,the latest attack was executed more quickly ,with relative surprise.It involved twice as many ballistic missiles.This escalation stemmed from significant damage Israel delivered to the image of the ‘’axis of resistence,’’especially Iranian proxy Hezbollah ,following criticism that Iran was abandoning its allies while not carrying its weight.Concerns in Tehran likely arose from how perceived weakness could affect internal stability ,and the possibility of Israel further intensifying attacks against Hezbollah or targeting Iran directly.Both sides seem intent on continuing to raise the stakes.Despite Iran warning that it would target Israeli civilian infrastructure in future attacks,decision –makers in Jerusalem are expected to authorize a more robust response than one they launched in April.Previous Israeli efforts were misinterpreted and failed to deter a direct Iranian assault,and efforts to disrupt offensive support between ‘’axis’’members have moved to the fore.This could lead to more forceful ,overt and effective Israeli military action against Iraq.The perception of Iran as the ‘’octopus head’’—the primary architect of a multi-front anti-Israeli strategy –also motivates intensified action.What is on the table?Israel may target military installations,such asv surface-to-surface missile bases or anti-aircraft systems,or Iran’s energy sector and political regime symbols.An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is being debated in Israel ,but is not likely at the moment.Factors being considered include the operational capability to excute such a strike effectively ,the time that would be required to rebuild the facilities ,expected regional reactions and impact on Iran’s future decisions to develop nuclear weapons .Tehran spared no expense in entertaining the masses during this year’s Al Quds Day festivities .Israeli and US flags were banned ,inflammatory speeches were given ,and a new digital clock was unveiled in the Tranian capital’s aptly –named Palestine Square .But this new clock doesn’t tell the time –instead it counts down to the destruction of Israel ,set for 2040.The date prediction comes from a speech Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenel gave on September 9,2015,in which he stated that the ‘’Zionist regime will cease to exist in the next 25 years.’’Israel will be celebrating its 92nd –and supposedly last-birthday in 2040.Our day of destruction will also festively be shared with the 100th anniversary of the first remote operation of a computer ,105th birthday of Israeli actor Chaim Topol of the Fiddler on the Roof fame ,and oddly enough ,the 47th anniversary of the Palestine Liberation Organization officially recognizing Israel as a legitimate state .Which one of these events will be worthy of a Google Doodle on September 9,2040? While we shake in our boots for the next 25 years,let us take a look some of at history’s failed predictions.War ravaged the globe from 1914 to 1918.Millions of people were killed,new chemical weapons caused horrific injuries ,and entire monarchies collapsed.No wonderpeople called it the War to End All Wars was quickly followed by another global war that unleashed even more destruction.The 1914-1918 war was thus renamed as the first World War.Tensions with Iraq and the Bush administration were at an all-time high after 9/11 and everyone could see that war was on the horizon .When asked how long a war would last during 2002CBS Radio interview ,then US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfled said,’’I can not tell you if the use of force in Iraq would last five days or five weeks ,or five months ,but it is certainly isn’t going to last any longer than that.’’In February 2003 ,prior to the March invasion of Iraq ,Rumsfeld told people in a town hall meeting that’’And it is not knowable if force will be used ,but if it is to be , used it is not knowable how long that conflict would last .It could last,you know,six days ,six weeks.I doubt six months.’’The war in Iran lasted nearly 8 yesrs and 9 months.officially ending in December 2011,and US troops remain in the country in the fight against ISIS.Israel is less likely to hit the oil facilities that underpin Iran’s economy or its nuclear sites,according to many of the experts interviewed ,who include more than half a dozen former military ,intelligence and diplomatic officers from US and Middle East.These highly sensitive targets would be expected to draw an escalated Iranian response including the potential targeting of the oil production sires of US allies in the region including Gulf Arab states .US President Biden said ,he would not negotiate in public when asked if he had urged Israel not to attack Iran’s oil facilities.Israel has surprised much of the world with the scale of its offensive against the Iranian –backed group Hezbollah ,from the detonation of thousands of militants pagers and walkie- talkies,to the Assassination of leader Sayyed Hassen Nasrallah in a Beirut airstrike and a ground incursion into southern Labanon.’’It would be unwise for outsiders to try to predict Israel’s attack plan ,’’said Norman Roule, a former senior CIA officer who served As the US intelligence community’s top manager for Iran from 2008 to 20017.
The author is a columnist,
social and KP activist
