Analysis
by Dr. Jaipal Singh
The BJP had attained absolute majority of their own in 2014 and 2019 general elections with 282 and 303 Lok Sabha seats respectively as they had performed very well at least in three of these four states. In 2014 general elections, the BJP won 22 seats (NDA 31) in Bihar, 23 seats (NDA 42) in Maharashtra, and 71 seats (NDA 73) in Uttar Pradesh, but only 2 seats in West Bengal. In 2019, the BJP won 17 seats (NDA 39) in Bihar, 23 seats (NDA 41) in Maharashtra, 64 seats (NDA 64) in Uttar Pradesh, and fairly well 18 seats in West Bengal too. They received only two seats in West Bengal but did exceptionally well in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra in 2014 to compensate it. With some of the states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, etc., consistently doing well for the BJP, the party could reach a tally of 240 seats in 2024 despite major setback in UP with 38 seats less compared to 2014, and considerably reduced numbers in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and West Bengal. The BJP is often blamed by the opposition of playing the Hindutva card and Ram Janmbhumi Temple issue, the party's setback at the Faizabad constituency has been exploited to the maximum by the opposition; hence it may be quite reasonable and fair to first analyze the BJP's loss there.
(1) Loss In Faizabad (Ayodhya)
The Faizabad parliamentary constituency was won by Awadhesh Prasad, a dalit candidate fielded by the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh defeating the sitting MP Lallu Singh by a margin of over fifty-four thousand votes. Since the independence, barring few exceptions this seat has traditionally remained with the Congress and other communist/socialist parties. Lallu Singh had been elected on the previous occasion in 2019 from this constituency by a margin of about sixty-five thousand defeating Anand Sen Yadav of the Samajwadi Party, and for the Lok Sabha election in the populous states like Uttar Pradesh, such margins of votes are not considered very comfortable majority. Ever since his election, the Samajwadi Party and Congress have been using Awadhesh Prasad like a poster boy in the parliament and outside citing that the BJP's communal agenda has failed and Hindus have not supported it even in Ayodhya despite the construction of the Ram Janmbhumi Temple by the BJP.
Whatever the opposition parties argue, let's have a look at the factual position of the Faizabad constituency. Prasad and his party argued that the transformation of Ayodhya in the run-up to the Ram temple consecration incurred serious difficulties and inconvenience to its residents, such as non-payment or less payment of compensation, dislocation of families without satisfactory rehabilitation, heavy barricading and police presence, traffic diversions, and recurring bureaucratic dominance and arrogance. Consequently, the dissatisfied and angry people overwhelmingly supported the Samajwadi candidate rejecting the BJP in Ayodhya. On the contrary, the Ayodhya district administration categorically denied such allegations stating that a total of Rs 1,253 crore was paid as compensation to residents affected by the various construction works for the development of the Ayodhya Dham. In fact, they publicly shared complete details of the shopkeepers wholly or partially affected, ex-gratia amount and compensation given and people rehabilitated owing to the beautification and widening of Rampath, Bhaktipath, Ram Janmabhoomi Path, Panchkosi and Chaudahkosi Parikrama Marg. Several shopkeepers too were shown on camera by various news channels expressing overall satisfaction with the compensation and administration.
It may not be out of context to mention the position of the adjacent Barabanki Lok Sabha constituency in historical perspective. Traditionally, this seat has been reserved for the Dalit/OBC candidates since independence and so for the BJP has won here only on three occasions, once in 1998 and twice on the last two occasions during the Modi wave. In a reorganization of the constituencies, Dariyabad and Rudauli Vidhan Sabha segments were merged with the neighbouring Faizabad constituency. The estimated population of the Dalits, Muslims and Yadavs in Faizabad is 26%, 14% and 12% respectively. It is a well-known fact that the factors of caste and religion play a very important role in the Indian electoral process, more so in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Currently, Ayodhya is only an assembly segment of the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency comprising of five assembly segments namely Ayodhya, Bikapur, Dariyabad, Milkipur and Rudauli. As can be seen from the following table, the BJP contestant actually had a lead of four thousand plus over the Samajwadi candidate in Ayodhya but the latter substantially scored over the former in the remaining four assembly segments to record a victory by over fifty-four thousand votes.
The Samajwadi Party candidate already had the benefit of the consolidation of all factions of the I.N.D.I. Alliance and the party consciously chose a Dalit candidate to attract so motivated voters forming a major chunk. As is apparent from the overall performance of the BJP at the national level after two terms (10 years) of the NDA governance under the brand Modi, incumbency factor too played an important role during the current elections. It's a worldwide phenomenon that any party or leader has been seldom returned by the electorate for the consecutive third term. Apart from the caste/religion and incumbency factors, the BJP candidate Lallu Singh made a serious mistake in making a public statement that the party needed more than four hundred seats to amend the Constitution for good. The opposition promptly picked up this jumla (phrase) in successfully altering to a narrative that if the BJP is returned to power this time, they will abolish reservation quota of SCs/STs/OBCs in jobs and institutions. This tactical Faultline caused serious damage to the prospects of the BJP/NDA not only in Faizabad but also in Uttar Pradesh and countrywide.
The BJP failed to repeat their 2014 or 2019 performance in Uttar Pradesh despite much hype caused by some of their party leaders and media in their opinion and exit polls. The party was restricted to just 33 seats, a loss of 38 seats if compared to 2014 and 31 seats compared to 2019 general elections. Had this fiasco not occurred in Uttar Pradesh alone, the BJP could have comfortably reached the magic figure of 272 to achieve absolute majority of their own. Together with the unanticipated losses in Maharashtra, West Bengal and Rajasthan, the party that aimed to considerably improve their 2019 tally of the Lok Sabha seats, actually fell short of 32 seats to achieve full majority in the parliament thus relying upon the regional allies like the TDP, JD(U) and others to form the government at the Centre. Thus, although the BJP succeeded to constitute the government but the Lok Sabha elections undoubtedly were a serious setback to the party, and ever since they are still working to analyze the reasons for the setback in the states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra with the state assembly elections due in Maharashtra and some other states in near future.
(2) Losses in Key States, including Uttar Pradesh & Maharashtra
While the state of Uttar Pradesh carries the maximum Lok Sabha seats of 80, it is indeed a crucial state in the politics at the national level. Undoubtedly, apart from the issues cited in the foregoing factors carrying a broad implication, the factors like unemployment, poverty and inflation would indeed play some role. The way breakage and consequent political turmoil took place in the state of Maharashtra in the parties like Shiv Sena Party and the Nationalist Congress Party, this was not appreciated by many well-meaning and neutral voters in the country. In many cases, several dissidents and deserters from other parties, particularly the Congress, joined the BJP and they were given priority in allocating party tickets. A majority of them did not fare well in elections besides causing heart-burn and demoralizing effect to a large number of otherwise dedicated BJP office bearers and supporters at the ground level. Final results in Maharashtra present a classic example while the party suffered in other states too on this account.
(To be continued….)
(This Article is reproduced in three episodes from www.boloji.com for fair information of our readers)
The Author is a retired civil servant of GoI; His core areas of specialization have been public administration, finance, information technology, human resource development, budget and planning, and legal matters. Currently, he is engaged in an Advisor capacity with one illustrious Central Autonomous Body; He has own literary website and his works are also available on https://www.myhummingword.com/)
