What can China do about Dalai Lama's Tawang visit?

Rajeev Sharma

Expect a drastic deterioration in India-China bilateral ties in the coming weeks and months.

Not that Asia's number three and number one economies (India and China, respectively) were enjoying the best of relations in the recent past, but the ongoing visit of Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama to Arunachal Pradesh has changed the scenario radically.

Now in the aftermath of this event, the two giant Asian neighbours are bound to let go of their velvet gloves and get at each other like gladiators.

China is most likely to be the initiator of aggression this time. Well, aggression doesn't mean in military terms, though the same cannot be ruled out 100 per cent given the high-decibel noises made by China over the issue of Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, his eighth since he fled China and crossed over to India in 1959.

China has explicitly warned India of “necessary measures” it will take to safeguard its core interests – a characterisation of its strategic red lines vis-a-vis India which keep expanding every other day.

Through its favourite mouthpiece among the vast arsenal of state-owned media at its command, The Global Times, China has threatened India that New Delhi may have “underestimated” Beijing's resolve to protect its core interests.

India will be ignoring this veiled threat from China at its own peril. India cannot afford to lower its guard at this point of time by all means – militarily, strategically, diplomatically or politically.

The million dollar question is: what can China do?

China can really push the envelope by several means, if it actually means to walk its talk.

China can launch another big ticket incursion into India, this time perhaps not in Ladakh but in Arunachal Pradesh where the Dalai Lama is currently visiting.

But then it would be a soft response, given the current power matrix and the current state of international politics when China is not having the best of relations with the US. It would inevitably lead to a long-drawn battle of wits rather than anything else as China would be deemed as a cry baby internationally in that event without scoring any brownie points.

Scenario two

China launches “surgical strikes” in Arunachal Pradesh while the Dalai Lama visit is still on.

But what will be the purpose of such an action as it would mean virtual declaration of war against India? That too over the visit of a Buddhist monk to a region which China claims to be its own! China would be isolated in the international community from day one, nay the first minute!

Scenario three

China launches a trade war and imposes severe curbs on Indian imports. But, apart from being a soft response, it would harm China more as the current balance of trade is blatantly in favour of China – and has always been.

Scenario four

China does none of the above but turns the heat on India by announcing the next big strategic plans of cooperation with Pakistan.

But what more can be done by China vis-a-vis Pakistan – a relationship which is already deeper than the oceans, higher than the mountains, stronger than steel and sweeter than honey? After all China is already selling fighter aircraft and submarines to Pakistan and working on the $51 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

All the above-mentioned scenarios are a big no-no for a power like China which is already behaving like a superpower and pretending to put itself on a par with the world's only superpower, the US. China, of course, cannot be unmindful of the fact that the superpower status has its own trappings.

A superpower cannot be seen to be working on knee-jerk reactions like taking extreme measures in response to a monk's visit somewhere. That would be tantamount to using a missile to get rid of a flea!

Despite all the bravado, China doesn't appear to have many aces up its sleeve. There are many reasons for this.

One, China knows in the hearts of its heart that it is not dealing with the India of 1962 when the two neighbours fought their only and unequal war.

Two, China is shortly going to host a major international summit to propagate its ambitious One Belt, One Road project. Any misadventure with India at this stage will inevitably deflect attention from this biggest foreign policy outreach by China in decades.

Three, India has been cleverly playing the Taiwan card with China of late and this covert strategy is far more ominous for China than the overt strategy of unleashing Dalai Lama as a counterbalancing strategic tool vis-a-vis China.

Four, politically speaking, China would be ill-advised to take India head-on at this stage when Indian PM Narendra Modi is undeniably ensconced as India's strong man and is capable of implementing “the complete jaw for one tooth” kind of reprisal policy.

In conclusion, China doesn't have many chips in its repertoire. If despite that China chooses to embark on some kind of misadventure, the call would be completely China's. After all, it's time for China to finally understand that Arunachal Pradesh and Kashmir are to India what Tibet and Taiwan are for China.

China gets zilch in trying to thwart Dalai Lama's Arunachal Pradesh visit.

The writer is an independent journalist and a strategic analyst.