Dissatisfied small allies of NDA may problems for BJP during polling
By Tirthankar Mitra
Given a closely contested poll battle in the two phase election in Bihar next month, results of 52 constituencies can make or break the prospects of INDI Alliance and NDA alliances. The Bihar polls are likely to be a closely run electoral race as Opposition did well in 121 seats that goes to the polls on November 6 while NDA nominees were ahead in 122 seats that goes for the election on November 11.
These 52 constituencies are far less than the 243 seats whose poll verdict will decide Bihar ‘s future government formation on November 14. The fate of 2020 ministry was decided by a slim margin. In the 2020 Bihar elections, margin of victory or defeat was less than 5000 votes in these seats.
Looking back at the 2020 poll results, it is found that there was a neck and neck contest in most of the seats. The RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats. The BJP was a close second with 74 seats. But with its allies chipping in, the NDA bagged 125 seats while the Opposition representation was in 110 constituencies.
The RJD nominees came up trumps in 15 closely contested seats while Congress emerged victorious in 9 constituencies which witnessed hard fought poll battles. One seat each was won by the other members of the Opposition coalition, better known as Mahagathbandhan comprising, RJD, the Congress and the Left mainly.
A closer look finds RJD finishing a close second in 16 of these 52 constituencies. On the other hand, the Congress, CPI(ML) Liberation and CPI ending up with 7, 2 and one seat respectively. JD(U) led by Nitish Kumar won 13 seats . The BJP bagged 9 seats of these crucial 52 constituencies. Vikasheel Insaan Party led by Mukesh Sahni which was then with NDA won one seat. It is with INDI Alliance now.
Jitan Ram Majhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (Secular) emerged victorious in one seat. The JD(U) finished second in 13 of the 52 constituencies. The BJP and the VIP was second in 10 and 2 seats respectively. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) which was then undivided had gone solo to the polls. It won by only 333 votes in Maithini. Hilsa in Nalanda district was won by JD(U) by the slimmest margin. The victory margin of JD(U) was just 12 votes.
There were other electoral triumphs of JD(U) by narrow margins. It won both Barbigha and Sheikhpur by 133 votes. The RJD was not to be left behind in slim margin victories. Its nominee won by just 189 votes against a BSP candidate at Ramgarh.
The CPI(ML) Liberation candidate lost to a JD(U) nominee by just 462 votes. The RJD candidate won against the BJP representative at Dehri by 464 votes. The CPI representative lost to the BJP candidate in Bacchwara by 484 votes. In Chakai an Independent defeated the RJD candidate by 581 votes.
The NDA alliance managed a turnaround in the Lok Sabha elections last year. It took a lead in 20 of the 52 low margin seats in which the Mahagathbandhan was ahead of it in 2020 elections. Of the 20 constituencies in which the NDA led, the Mahagathbandhan took a lead in six last year. Darbhanga Rural constituency is part of Darbhanga Lok Sabha. In it, the RJD defeated JD(U) in 2020 by 2141 votes. But BJP led by 24,075 votes in Lok Sabha elections.
If the results of 2020 Assembly polls and 2024 Lok Sabha polls are clear pointers to a game of numbers, the INDI Alliance Bloc has some cause for cheer. Rashtriya Lok Morcha and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) leaderships which are part of NDA have expressed their resentment over allotment of seats.
Both have been allotted six seats each. Upendra Kushwaha leading RLM has apologised to the party rank and file on social media. But HAM (Secular) leader and Union minister Jitan Ram Majhi has made it plain that the distribution. of seats “could hurt NDA”. His party had been given 15 seats while JD (U) and BJP have got 101 seats each. Majhi is a former chief minister. He belongs to the Musahar community which belongs to Scheduled Caste.
Both the aggrieved leaders have been “cementing social factor” for the NDA. Their presence adds crucial votes to the BJP-led alliance and Kushwaha and Musahars account to 4.2 per cent and 3 per cent of the population of Bihar.
As the poll dates inch closer, there are further dissension in NDA allies. Apparently minor political forces, their resentment can cut into the caste based vote bank of the alliance. Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) a BJP ally in Uttar Pradesh has announced that it will field candidates in 153 seats in Bihar elections. It has been given five seats instead of 29 demanded by it. These minor NDA partners can sabotage the coalition nominees poll prospects. It would make retaining Bihar an uphill task for NDA in the coming Assembly elections. (IPA Service)
