Statehood still elusive
Pushp Saraf
Will Jammu and Kashmir ever regain its statehood? More than five years have passed since the region was stripped of that status by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Government and the question continues to hang in the air—unanswered and unresolved. Despite periodic reassurances, mostly from high political platforms and often couched in vague language, the promise remains unfulfilled. For now, the fate of statehood seems tied not to the will of the majority of the people of J&K, but to the BJP’s evolving calculus of political timing, national security and electoral expediency.
On August 5, 2019, the Union government abrogated concerned sections of Article 370 of the Constitution, ending the special status of J&K. The erstwhile State was simultaneously bifurcated into two Union Territories—J&K with a legislature, and Ladakh without one. The move, historic and controversial in equal measure, was presented as necessary for full integration, development and the eradication of terrorism. While the BJP claimed it was correcting a historical anomaly, critics saw it as a blow to federalism and democratic autonomy. Yet even then, Union Home Minister Amit Shah assured Parliament that statehood would be restored “at an appropriate time.” Time and again he has said: “It is not a permanent UT.”
That time, however, has remained elusive. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Shah, and other BJP leaders have reiterated the promise of restoration on several occasions, but without offering any concrete roadmap or timeline. In interviews and parliamentary statements, the official line remains consistent but evasive: statehood will return once “normalcy” is achieved. But what constitutes normalcy remains undefined.
Consolidation over concession
One of the central reasons for the delay lies in the BJP’s approach to governance in J&K since 2019. With the region downgraded to a UT, the Centre gained full control over law and order. This direct oversight allowed the Union Government to implement a security-first approach, characterised by detentions of secessionist leaders, dismissals of government employees deemed sympathetic to anti-national ideologies, and a crackdown on any overt protest against the Accession and the country.
The BJP sees this tight administrative control as a key accomplishment. Under the stewardship of Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, public service delivery improved in many remote areas. Government schemes reached villages that had long been on the margins and infrastructure projects were accelerated. Additionally, tourist numbers surged, particularly in the Valley, bringing economic relief to an otherwise stressed region. The administration proudly compared this influx to the sporadic tourist activity seen between 1996 and 2014, interpreting it as proof that security, peace and normalcy had been restored.
The annual report of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs for 2023-24 lists the broad contours of the strategy and its positive outcome. The report says: “The endeavour of the Government has been to: i. Proactively take suitable measures by all the Security Forces to safeguard the borders from cross-border terrorism and to contain militancy. ii. To ensure that the democratic process is sustained and primacy of civil administration is restored to effectively tackle the socio-economic problems of the people on account of the effects of prolonged militancy in UT of Jammu & Kashmir. iii. To ensure a sustained peace process and to provide adequate opportunities to all sections of people in the UT of J&K who eschew violence to effectively represent their view points and to redress their genuine grievances. iv. To dismantle the terror eco-system by effectively dismantling the terror support structure, terror financing and anti-India elements.
“The security situation of UT of J&K has improved significantly. Organised stone pelting and protests have become things of past. Subsequently, UT of J&K has witnessed overall development in all sectors. Tourism Sector in J&K witnessed unprecedented growth in the year 2022 with more than 1.88 crore tourist visits in the UT. In 2023-24, it was more than 2 crore. 3rd Tourism Working Group meeting of G-20 held from 22nd to 24th May, 2023 at Srinagar. This event has placed the UT of J&K on the global stage and served as a significant milestone in the progress and development of the UT. Shri Amarnath ji Yatra, 2023 was successfully completed in August, 2023. In the year 2023, 4.45 lakh yatris visited the holy cave which is the highest in last 10 years. Kashmir lit up on the celebration of Diwali at Mata Sharda Devi Temple in Kupwara District, this year, for the first time in 75 years. The temple was rebuilt to rejuvenate the sacred and centuries old pilgrimage to Sharda Peeth temple in PoK.”
But security is only one part of the equation. In the long run, the absence of representative politics creates an institutional vacuum. While governance may continue through bureaucratic mechanisms, the democratic deficit becomes harder to ignore. The BJP’s failure to win the hearts of the Valley’s electorate during the September–October 2024 Union Territory elections was a telling blow. Despite its administrative achievements, the party could not overcome its image as an outsider to the Kashmiri identity and cause.
A democratic milestone, but with limits
Nonetheless, the smooth conduct of the 2024 elections was a noteworthy achievement. With no incidents of violence, no repolling, and a voter turnout hovering around 60 percent, the elections were hailed by the Government as proof of democratic normalisation. The BJP countered criticism that it was delaying statehood to prolong its rule by proxy. As Home Minister Shah declared, “no bullets, no stone-pelting, no teargas”—this was a new chapter for Kashmir’s electoral process.
Yet the BJP’s inability to win a majority, even with the support of allied groups and independents, has influenced its political posture post-election. Had the BJP gained a significant foothold in the Valley, the equation might have changed. But its poor performance in the Kashmir region has deepened its reluctance to hand over real power. Restoring statehood would mean transferring authority—especially over sensitive areas like policing and home affairs—to a locally elected government that may not share the BJP’s ideological orientation or security priorities.
Political strategy and security doctrine collide
This tension between democratic ideals and political strategy is evident in the BJP’s handling of separatist and religious groups. A case in point is the recent ban on the Awami Action Committee (AAC) and the Ittihadul Muslimeen—both associated with the moderate faction of the Hurriyat Conference, led by Mirwaiz Moulvi Umar Farooq. Omar Abdullah, Chief Minister of the UT and leader of the National Conference (NC), openly criticised the decision, stating that while his party does not endorse secessionist politics, it opposes blanket bans on religious or civil society organisations.
The BJP, however, has made it clear that it has no appetite for engagement with even the moderate strands of the separatist movement. To do so would undermine the hardline stance that the party believes has helped stabilise the region. There is little room in the BJP’s current security doctrine for political nuance—especially when it comes to groups that once questioned the legitimacy of the Union Government’s writ in Kashmir.
This is perhaps why Amit Shah, in a recent television interview, refused to provide a specific timeline for statehood restoration. His explanation—that certain parameters still need to be evaluated—only reinforced the perception that the benchmarks for “normalcy” are arbitrary and politically convenient. Without defined criteria, the promise of statehood remains a moving target.
NC: From protest to pragmatism
Despite its initial strong opposition to the abrogation of Article 370, the NC has managed a political comeback. Under Omar Abdullah’s leadership, the NC won 42 seats in the recent elections and formed a coalition government with the Congress and several independents. But it is not the same NC of 2019. There has been a notable evolution in the party’s approach—a shift from resistance to pragmatism.
While the NC continues to demand the restoration of Article 370, it has chosen to prioritise the more attainable objective of statehood. Omar has repeatedly acknowledged the need to work with the Centre, stressing that “governance cannot be achieved by fighting with the Union Government.” In a significant moment, during the inauguration of the Sonamarg tunnel, he praised the Prime Minister for infrastructural development and publicly expressed hope that the Centre would soon fulfill its promise of statehood. The NC’s current approach presently is conciliatory and not confrontationist.
This moderation has earned both criticism and praise. Former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) accused Omar of aiding the Centre in “depoliticising” the state. Yet others view it as a mature strategy—engaging with the political realities while holding on to core principles. Omar himself has drawn a line between ideological opposition and administrative cooperation. “We may disagree with the BJP,” he said, “but we must engage with them for the people’s welfare.”
This approach signals an attempt by the NC to rebrand itself—not just as a regional party with historical grievances, but as a credible governing force capable of facing the complexities of post-370 Kashmir.
Congress: Consistent rhetoric, diminished Influence
The Congress party, though far from its past dominance in J&K, has maintained a consistent voice on statehood. Under the leadership of Pradesh Congress President Tariq Hameed Karra, the party launched the “Hamari Riyasat, Hamara Haq” (Our State, Our Right) campaign to press for immediate restoration.
Tariq has not minced words. He has called the BJP’s policies “disempowering” and accused the government of betraying its commitments. He has criticised what he calls “rule by remote control,” arguing that the people of Jammu—long considered a BJP stronghold—have been let down by the party’s failure to restore statehood and boost development.
Despite its vocal position, the Congress suffers from electoral irrelevance. Once strong in the Hindu-majority Jammu plains, the party has lost significant ground to the BJP. Its few wins in the Valley are largely attributable to alliances with the NC. For now, the Congress operates more as a pressure group than a power player. Its critiques of unemployment, delayed infrastructure projects and youth alienation resonate with public sentiment, but without numbers in the Assembly, its influence remains limited.
Nonetheless, the Congress serves an important function in this political ecosystem. It provides ideological clarity and functions as a watchdog over the BJP’s actions. Whether it can rebuild its organisational strength and reclaim its lost bastions remains to be seen.
Dual power structure
One of the unintended consequences of the current political arrangement is the creation of a dual power structure. Although the NC-led government is now in place, real authority—particularly over the elite services like the IAS and IPS—remains with the Union Government and the Lt Governor. This results in confusion, overlapping jurisdictions, and administrative inertia.
From project delays to unclear lines of command, the governance bottleneck is palpable. Tanvir Sadiq, a senior NC leader, has described this dual system as one that “weakens institutions” and “creates friction.” While Sadiq echoed the party line by stressing constructive engagement with the Centre, he also pointed out that real progress would only be possible with the full restoration of statehood.
This ambiguous distribution of power not only hampers day-to-day governance but also erodes public confidence in democratic processes. With elected representatives unable to exercise full authority and bureaucrats unsure of their boundaries, a sense of political stagnation may well set in.
The price of delay
The longer the Centre delays restoring statehood, the greater the risk of alienating a population that has already endured decades of political upheaval and conflict. Statehood is not just a legal status—it is a symbol of trust, dignity, and belonging especially in J&K which has long enjoyed it. Its absence deepens political apathy and opens the door to disenchantment, particularly among the youth. It is in these vacuums that extremist ideologies often take root.
Moreover, from a constitutional perspective, prolonged Union Territory status without compelling justification can be seen as an erosion of federal principles. The country, after all, is a union of states, where each region is guaranteed a degree of autonomy and self-governance. By keeping J&K in a liminal space, the Centre risks setting a precedent that weakens the federal balance.
From elusiveness to execution
J&K stands at a critical juncture. The elections have been conducted peacefully. A government has been formed through popular mandate. The key political actors—from the NC to the Congress to even those who have not won a seat—have spoken in favour of restoring statehood. Even BJP leaders continue to promise it. The only missing piece is execution.
The Centre must now translate its assurances into action. If the argument for withholding statehood was based on security, then the successful conduct of elections and the decline in militant activity should serve as evidence that the region is ready. If the delay is political, then the BJP must ask itself what it stands to gain by indefinitely postponing a promise that enjoys wide support across party lines.
For the NC, the task is to continue balancing pragmatism with principle—pressuring the Centre while ensuring effective governance. For the Congress, the challenge lies in rebuilding credibility and connecting with a new generation of voters. The PDP is striving to stage a comeback on the political theatre. And for the BJP, the opportunity is to demonstrate that national integration can be accomplished not only through legislation and force but also through democratic restoration and trust-building.
The restoration of statehood is more than an administrative change. It is a reaffirmation of the widely accepted principle that all citizens—regardless of geography—are entitled to representation, autonomy and dignity. For J&K, and for our democracy itself, the time to move from elusiveness to execution is now.
(Courtesy of the Border Affairs, New Delhi)
