Congress-DMK fight in Tamil Nadu before election is ominous for opposition
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections scheduled to be held on January 15, have sprung up the symptoms of sinking of the INDIA bloc, while fighting erupted on seat sharing between the Congress and the DMK in Tamil Nadu just before the Legislative Assembly Election likely to be held by April-May 2026 is a worrisome development for the opposition.
These two political developments are ominous not only for INDIA bloc and its allies but also for the entire opposition in general at a time when election for the Legislative Assemblies of five states and a UT – Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry – are likely to be announced within few weeks from now. If rift within INDIA bloc escalates further, the morale of the opposition will plummet significantly, which may impact the political outcome of the next round of Legislative Assembly elections. Only saving grace for the opposition now is that the BJP led NDA is also not in very good shape barring in Assam.
As for the BMC elections in Maharashtra are concerned, the ruling Mahayuti is also divided, though BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) alliance seems to be on much stronger feet than the divided Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) which is INDIA bloc at the national level. Political alliances in Maharashtra for the BMC elections have become complex with both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition MVA suffered splits.
The NCP (Ajit Pawar) has left the ruling Mahayuti to contest BMC elections on its own. They are contesting 94 seats in BMC elections out of 227 wards for which a total of about 1700 candidates from various parties are contesting. BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) group of the Mahayuti contesting on all seats – BJP on 137 and Shiv Sena (Shinde) on 90 seats.
Though there are also some rifts between the BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde), they seem to be more or less united and contesting well. Even before the actual polling, the BJP and Shiv Sena have won 68 of 69 seats unopposed and they are far ahead of the INDIA bloc even before election. BJP has won 44, Shiv Sena (Shinde) 22, NCP (Ajit Pawar) 2. Islamic Party has won on seat unopposed, but INDIA bloc could not win any seat unopposed.
It is in this backdrop, the divided MVA in Maharashtra BMC poll is a worrisome development. Congress has parted ways from the MVA and have made a separate alliance along with Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSPS). Congress is contesting at 151, VBA at 46 and RSPS at 2 seats.
On the other hand, Shiv Sena (UBT), Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and NCP (SP) are contenting as a separate group, though Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) are part of INDIA bloc. This political development brought in the political arena after the Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray of MNS joined hands.
Such a development in INDIA bloc has increased the complexity of choices before the anti-BJP voters, and they are bound to vote two different groups of the MVA which is sure to harm the prospect of MVA, that is INDIA bloc, in Maharashtra. BMC was once a Shiv Sena stronghold, but the shifting coalition has pushed the INDIA bloc on slippery ground. It should be noted that Mumbai is the financial capital of India, and winning this election is important for political parties, for their financial health.
In Tamil Nadu, the ruling INDIA bloc led by DMK is currently strong enough to win the forthcoming Legislative Assembly election. In the 2021 election, the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) had won 159 out of 234 seats while NDA had won 75 seats only. It seems SPA, that is INDIA bloc, is well placed to repeat its win in 2026 elections also. However, when we look at their vote share vis a vis NDA’s share of votes, the things look little complex, especially when we take into consideration the latest political developments in the state. In 2021 election SPA’s vote share was 45.4 per cent and NDA’s vote share was 39.7 per cent.
DMK had won 133, INC 19, CPI 2, VCK 4 and CPI(M) 2 seats. In NDA camp, AIADMK had won 66, BJP 4 and PMK 5 seats. On the basis of number of seats, it’s INDIA bloc advantage over NDA. However, NDA has only less than 6 per cent of vote share compared to INDIA bloc, and there is every chance that they will be able to increase their vote share.
In this backdrop, any quarrel between the DMK and Congress on seat sharing is ominous. The quarrel is likely to impact other allies of INDIA bloc too. In the 2021 state election, DMK had contested 188 seats and Congress 25 seats. Congress has demanded 40 seats this time, for which DMK is not ready. The insiders in the DMK says that they are willing to give 32 seats, while Congress is now pushing for 38 seats.
The power sharing tensions in the Tamil Nadu is also reflected in the Congress MP Manickam Tagore’s statement that their party wants not just alliance seats but a share in government also if the coalition wins. There are other political developments too that suggest possibility of changing political equations in the state. Actor-politician Vijay’s party TVK has recently claimed Congress as their natural ally, which has triggered new speculation of political alliance in the state.
Given the latest political developments in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, people are asking the question whether INDIA bloc is now a sinking boat? Nevertheless, it is too early to answer this question, since Congress, as the largest party of the INDIA bloc may recalibrate its political strategy for the coming Legislative Elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. (IPA Service)
