Kota Sriraj
October is usually a pleasant month that bids a decisive adieu to monsoon and brings in cooler temperatures prior to the onset of winter. Climate change has played havoc with the seasons; winters are now feeble and do not last long. Summers are harsh and prolonged. Monsoons are unusually dry in some parts of the country and abnormally wet in other regions. As extreme weather events — floods and droughts — become the new normal, the role of climate change in causing this imbalance cannot be ignored. Kerala, considered the birthplace of monsoons for the subcontinent, faced the unexpected wrath of rain-led fury that claimed over 40 lives and caused numerous landslides. This untimely extreme weather event was predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in August this year when it indicated that India was likely to face severe and irreversible impacts of climate change in the form of intense tropical cyclones, floods and erratic monsoons. This forecast has not only come true for Kerala but for the state of Uttarakhand as well where extreme rainfall has claimed nearly 60 lives and caused immense damage to property and infrastructure. The adverse impact of climate change is making itself felt in altering the daily lives and livelihoods of the common man. As agriculture crops fail due to repeated floods and droughts, the economic plight of farmers is worsening forcing marginal cultivators to take more loans that can no longer be repaid. According to credit ratings agency, India Ratings, the country's GDP is poised to shrink by three per cent annually in response to a one-degree Celsius rise in temperature. The extreme events are also damaging the environment. The recent floods in Uttarakhand, for instance, have not only caused irreversible damage to life and property but have also harmed the biodiversity of the Himalayas. As extensive landslides and flooded rivers alter the landscape, precious biodiversity too is permanently changed and impacted. To make matters worse, the role of humans is aiding and abetting the climate change. For instance, the continuous dumping of construction waste in Naini lake and indiscriminate mining in Kerala is being seen as precipitating factors that pushed an already aggravated condition over the edge. The severe weather events, especially rains, are not occurring suddenly. According to a study, the inordinately heavy rainfall events have tripled in India since 1950s and they are getting worse. These events may give the impression that India's summer monsoons have increased but the reality is that the same have decreased by six per cent over the past 60 years. If the past trend is any indication, India needs to prepare for more such extreme natural events in future. The Ministry of Earth Sciences data shows the country witnessed just one cyclone in 2016 but had six each in 2018 and 2019. Similarly, the extreme rainfall events have increased from 226 in 2016 to 554 in 2019. It must be realised that our indifference is precipitating these extreme weather events. Uncontrolled deforestation, rise in greenhouse gas emissions or increasing carbon footprint levels are triggering an increase in the pace of climate change which in turn is causing these extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are a symptom of climate change and India must not contend itself by “managing” them effectively. Instead, India must pursue the disease itself which is climate change and ensure that the same is significantly controlled by curbing the precipitating factors. This alone will help cure the disease and eliminate the symptoms as well.
(The writer is an environmental journalist. The views expressed are personal.)
