New Delhi has resisted coercion, expanded its geopolitical autonomy
By T N Ashok
In the chancelleries of power from Washington to Moscow, a singular question has preoccupied strategic minds throughout 2025: how has India, under Narendra Modi, managed to preserve its economic momentum and political leverage whilst others faltered? The answer lies not in fortune but in a carefully calibrated strategy that has seen New Delhi resist coercion, expand its geopolitical autonomy, and consolidate domestic support with a deftness that belies the complexity of its challenges.
When President Trump imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods in August 2025, ostensibly as punishment for purchasing Russian oil, the stage was set for a defining test of India’s diplomatic mettle. The tariff burden reached a punitive 50 percent, threatening India’s $186 billion bilateral trade with America. Lesser nations might have buckled. Modi did not.
India’s response was swift and unapologetic. The Ministry of External Affairs termed the American position “unjustified and unreasonable”, pointedly noting that the European Union maintained bilateral trade worth 67.5 billion euros with Russia in 2024, whilst America itself continued importing Russian uranium, palladium, and fertilizers.
The prime minister’s counter-strategy proved masterful. At a rally in Uttar Pradesh, Modi urged citizens to embrace locally manufactured goods, effectively transforming external pressure into an opportunity for economic nationalism.
The December summit with Vladimir Putin in New Delhi, conducted amidst the city’s characteristic smog, served as Modi’s definitive answer to Western pressure. Putin promised “uninterrupted shipments of fuel to India”, praising Modi for resisting “external pressure”. India’s bilateral trade with Russia reached a record $68.7 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2025, nearly six times higher than pre-pandemic levels. This was not mere defiance but strategic calculation: India saved billions through discounted Russian crude whilst stabilizing global energy markets at a time when supply chains remained fragile.
The partnership yielded tangible security dividends. Russian-origin S-400 air defence systems, acquired despite earlier American sanctions threats, proved their worth during Operation Sindoor in May, when India struck terror infrastructure across the border. Modi’s gamble had been vindicated: strategic autonomy, when backed by economic heft and military capability, commands respect even from those who oppose it.
If foreign policy tested Modi’s diplomatic finesse, domestic politics in November reaffirmed his electoral dominance. The Bihar assembly elections delivered a verdict that stunned even seasoned observers: the National Democratic Alliance secured 202 of 243 seats, with the BJP emerging as the single largest party for the first time in the state’s history.
The magnitude of the victory was remarkable. The Rashtriya Janata Dal, which had won 75 seats in 2020, collapsed to a mere 25, its worst performance in a decade. The BJP’s vote share surged to 20.5 percent, whilst turnout touched a historic 67.13 percent. Prime Minister Modi attributed the success to what he termed the “Mahila-Youth” formula, crediting women and young voters for the sweep whilst promising the victory “paved the way” for similar outcomes in West Bengal.
The Bihar result was not merely about numbers. It demonstrated Modi’s ability to translate national popularity into state-level success, even in regions where caste calculations have traditionally trumped party loyalty. The BJP’s strategy of targeting female voters through direct cash transfers, whilst simultaneously projecting Modi’s leadership and development agenda, proved devastatingly effective. For the first time, the BJP contested an equal number of seats with its ally, the Janata Dal (United), signaling its emergence as Bihar’s dominant political force.
Narendra Modi remains the world’s most popular democratically elected leader, with approval ratings of 71 percent as of December 2025, according to Morning Consult’s global tracking. This extraordinary figure, sustained through eleven consecutive years in power, defies conventional political wisdom about incumbency fatigue.
Within India, support reaches 86 percent in the North and 74 percent in the West, though the South remains resistant at just 32 percent. Interestingly, women rate Modi higher than men—72 percent compared to 64 percent—suggesting that welfare schemes targeting female beneficiaries have fundamentally altered India’s political calculus.
What explains this durability? Modi has succeeded where others faltered by combining aggressive nationalism with targeted welfarism, technological modernization with cultural conservatism. His government’s initiatives—from free food grain distribution to infrastructure development—have delivered tangible improvements in citizens’ lives whilst projecting an image of strong, decisive leadership. In an era when Western leaders struggle to maintain 40 percent approval, Modi’s ratings testify to a political alchemy few have mastered.
With assembly elections scheduled in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry between March and May 2026, the BJP approaches a crucial electoral test with considerable momentum. The party’s strategy appears clear: leverage the Bihar landslide to project inevitability, deploy Modi’s personal popularity as a force multiplier, and target regional satraps with a combination of nationalist messaging and welfare delivery.
West Bengal represents the ultimate prize and challenge. The state’s 294 seats will witness a high-stakes contest between Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and the BJP, which has positioned itself as the principal opposition. Modi’s promise to end “jungle raj” in Bengal echoes his successful Bihar strategy, framing the election as a choice between chaos and development, corruption and good governance.
Tamil Nadu presents different dynamics, with the AIADMK and BJP reuniting in April 2025 to challenge the incumbent DMK-led alliance. Though the BJP’s southern footprint remains modest, its ambitions have grown. The party calculates that even modest gains will shift perceptions about its pan-Indian appeal, crucial for the 2029 general elections.
The Bihar victory has fundamentally altered these calculations. What seemed improbable—a BJP sweep in traditionally difficult terrain—now appears achievable. Modi’s team has demonstrated an ability to crack seemingly impenetrable regional fortresses through a combination of organizational strength, targeted messaging, and the prime minister’s personal appeal.
In mid-2025, India surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy by nominal GDP. With robust domestic demand driving 70 percent of economic activity, India has maintained growth momentum whilst much of the world struggles.
India’s GDP growth reached 7.8 percent in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, making it the fastest-growing major economy globally. The International Monetary Fund projects growth of 6.4 percent for both 2025 and 2026, whilst projections suggest India will become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030 with a GDP exceeding $7 trillion.
This performance stands in sharp contrast to Europe’s stagnation and China’s slowdown. Germany, for instance, contracted in both 2023 and 2024, with growth expected at just 0.2 percent in 2025. Italy has averaged merely 0.4 percent growth over the past quarter-century. India’s acceleration stems from structural reforms initiated over the past decade, improved ease of doing business, infrastructure investment, and a youthful workforce entering productive employment.
Yet challenges remain. American tariff threats, global trade tensions, and the risk of synchronized slowdown across Western economies could disrupt India’s trajectory under pessimistic scenarios. The government’s strategy appears to involve insulating the domestic economy through consumption-driven growth whilst pursuing trade diversification to reduce dependence on any single market.
When NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte claimed in September that Modi had contacted Putin seeking clarification on Ukraine strategy due to American tariffs, India’s response was characteristically blunt. The Ministry of External Affairs dismissed the statement as “factually incorrect and entirely baseless”, demanding that leaders of major international organizations demonstrate “greater responsibility and precision” in their public remarks.
The episode revealed much about India’s evolving stance. New Delhi refuses to be drawn into Cold War-style binary choices, maintaining dialogue with all sides whilst protecting its interests. Whilst NATO seeks to enhance cooperation with India around shared concerns about China and the rules-based order, India has carefully calibrated its engagement to avoid jeopardizing relationships with Russia or appearing to join a Western-led containment strategy.
Modi’s approach reflects a sophisticated understanding of great power competition. India benefits from close ties with America through the Quad, from energy security through Russia, and from market access through China—despite border tensions. This multi-alignment, once derided as fence-sitting, has evolved into a doctrine of strategic autonomy that maximizes India’s leverage whilst minimizing its vulnerabilities.
India under Modi has fashioned a foreign policy that prizes flexibility over ideology, outcomes over optics. The willingness to withstand American tariff pressure whilst deepening Russian energy ties, to balance Beijing whilst engaging Washington, represents a departure from decades of cautious non-alignment. It is alignment without allegiance, partnership without dependence.
Domestically, the Bihar landslide and sustained approval ratings suggest Modi has cracked the code of democratic durability: deliver welfare, project strength, and maintain narrative control. The upcoming 2026 state elections will test whether this formula can overcome entrenched regional identities and anti-incumbency in hostile territories.
Economically, India’s outperformance amidst global turbulence validates the government’s bet on domestic demand-driven growth, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing expansion. Challenges abound—unemployment, regional inequality, and external vulnerabilities—yet the trajectory remains upward.
As 2026 unfolds, Modi stands at the apogee of his power: commanding unmatched domestic popularity, navigating geopolitical complexity with assurance, and positioning India as a rising power that sets terms rather than accepts them. Whether this moment represents a plateau or a launching pad for further gains will determine not merely Modi’s legacy, but India’s trajectory for decades to come.
The world, uncertain and fractious, watches with a mixture of anxiety and admiration as the subcontinent’s political colossus strides forward, defiant and determined. (IPA Service)
