The political resolutions passed at Congress's Raipur session have demonstrated sufficient flexibility in addressing the major issues. There are indications that the Congress will stake its claim to lead the entire anti-BJP opposition only if it could defeat the BJP in at least four out of six assembly elections in 2023. The most important issue that the Congress delegates and top leadership have emphasised is the importance of strengthening the party organisation in the states that will face assembly elections in the second and third phases in 2023. Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram are the remaining states. In early 2023, the political reality is that the Congress will have to go it alone in the upcoming assembly elections in six states. Negotiations with the JD(S) are possible in Karnataka, and if an agreement is reached between the two parties, the BJP will face a crushing defeat in the state.
Right now, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has spoken of a total opposition alliance led by the Congress party that may not be practical, and should not be attempted. The Congress has strong supporters in the opposition and may form a pre-Lok Sabha poll alliance with them. The Congress leadership appears to have a list of sixteen such parties that agree with Rahul Gandhi's leadership.
To summarise, the electoral situation ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, which are now only thirteen months away, is fluid. The opposition, particularly Congress, requires clarity in vision and a nuanced approach to charting a course for talks with allies and other potential partners in a post-election alliance. Fortunately, the signals from the Raipur plenary are positive. According to reports, Congress General Secretary K C Venugopal told a media outlet that if the Congress wins around 150 seats in the 2024 elections, it will automatically be given the leadership of the opposition. That is the appropriate approach.
The Congress does not have an inherited right to rule at the centre. The party must take the lead in the upcoming assembly elections, which will be closely watched. If the Congress defeats the BJP in the assembly elections in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, such a favourable momentum will be created that even the obstinate TMC to fall in line with other opposition parties and may accept Rahul Gandhi to lead the challenge to fight against the indomitable image of Prime Minister Modi in the electoral field. But things are not as simple as these appear as many political permutation and combinations are working cross-cutting varied interests. Only the Congress organisation that has a national level appeal and multi-regional presence can afford to lead the challenge provided it accommodate the aspirations of other opposition parties after showing its own strength.
