US President needs a win after his failure to stop Ukraine war
By Nitya Chakraborty
The U.S. President Donald Trump is finally meeting the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Seoul by this month end, possibly on October 30, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in the South Korean capital scheduled for October 31 and November 1. Both the leaders are attending APEC summit, but Trump, preceding his meeting with Xi, will be attending the ASEAN summit scheduled at Kuala Lumpur on October 26 to 28. Trump will be making a visit to Japan also during this period.
The summit is more crucial from Trump’s political perspective compared to President Xi, who has got a mandate from the fourth plenary session of the central committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) for his ambitious 15th five-year plan covering the period 2026-2030. The economic report at the four-day session beginning October 20 indicated that the Chinese economy has been able to absorb the impact of trade tariffs imposed by Trump and the current efforts of diversifying exports are yielding results. There are irritants on the economic path but those are manageable. China can hold on; there is no panicky situation to rush for a trade deal with Trump.
So, President Xi will be attending the Seoul summit with confidence and will be in a better bargaining position with the US president on the contentious trade issues which are under discussion. On the other hand, President Trump will be attending with some discomfort as his image has got a jolt with the continuing problems in implementing his Gaza peace plan and in the total failure of his efforts to stop the Russia-Ukraine war. Rather, the tensions have heightened with Russia after his latest announcement on imposing fresh sanctions on the two major Russian oil companies in international transactions. Among the western alliance members, Trump is again in collision course with Canada and the trade talks have been suspended by Trump.
Under such circumstances, Trump badly needs a deal with China to show his invincibility as a deal maker as also a messenger of peace. He also needs China in persuading Xi’s ally President Putin to cooperate with Trump in implementing his peace plan for ending the Ukraine war. Trump does not want the Europeans to take any front-foot bypassing the US in helping Ukraine. The US administration does not like the Europe coalition for helping Ukraine. Trump feels that this European move will only prolong the war putting more burdens on the USA.
But the most important issue is to conclude a trade deal, the process of which has got set back in the last few days despite two earlier draft trade agreements; one arrived at Geneva and the second at London. To appease President Xi’s feelings on the latest additional tariff hike imposed by the US on Chinese exports, in back-channel discussions, the US side offered lower tariffs to the Chinese exports with two conditions, China will have to resume import of US soya-beans and lift restrictions on the rare earth minerals.
The timing of the October 30 summit is also significant. The additional 100 per cent tariff imposed a few days back by the US as retaliation against China stopping export of rare earth minerals, is due to take effect from November 1. Once it takes effect, the US high-tech industry will be badly hit. The sense of urgency has been communicated to Trump. Trump has to take the issue as a priority one with President Xi and a solution has to be worked out at this meeting. Before leaving on his five-day tour of Asia, Trump told his accompanying reporters, “I think we are going to end up having a fantastic deal with China, it is going to be fantastic for the entire world”. He uses always hyperbole but still it is apparent that Trump will make his best efforts to conclude a trade deal with President Xi at this summit.
Trump may be keen on a total deal but Xi may not agree to that, rather the Chinese president will go for a limited understanding keeping the door open for a summit at a later date for a total trade agreement. Since Trump is very keen to find a solution of the rare earths supply issue, Xi might agree to that after getting some concessions from US side. Will Taiwan be one such condition?
Many experts on latest US policies under Trump 2.0 believe that Trump may let down Taiwan to get big concessions from China which are needed for the development of high-tech industry in US. At the Seoul summit, he may focus on major trade issues, but if Xi wants a firm assurance on one China policy, he may even agree to that seeking some protection for Taiwan for the time being. The White House is divided on China issue. There are China doves and China hawks. Trump is trying to balance both sides while arriving at a composite policy. Taiwan will be anxiously looking at the outcome of the Seoul summit. (IPA Service)
