CPEC, Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistani economy – 1
Dr Shabir Choudhry
CPEC is, no doubt, a big project with many dimensions and many targets. It is hailed as a ‘game changer'. However, debate still goes on in Pakistan and around the globe, in whose favour the game will change, as a weak partner in any game, trade or pact does not dictate terms or win the game.
Many critics argue this mega project will start from an occupied territory (East Turkistan, in view of many local people is occupied by China), and will enter another occupied territory, Gilgit Baltistan occupied by Pakistan; and will end in Balochistan, which, in view of many local people is also an occupied territory. This ground reality, ignored by powerful people in China and Pakistan could be very important for the success or failure of the CPEC.
The CPEC has some obvious advantages. Some people and companies will become very rich in China and Pakistan; however, very few people talk about disadvantages which will have a great impact on all citizens of Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan and the region. The powerful and those who are to benefit from this mega project ensure that every critic of the CPEC is silenced or is projected as enemy of Pakistan; and in some cases, an agent of India or some other countries.
Many people talk about situation in Balochistan, and what impact it may have on the CPEC projects and future convoys going to the Gwadar port. It is imperative to note that the situation in occupied Gilgit Baltistan is also not satisfactory because of these reasons:
1/ People of Gilgit Baltistan, despite iron fist control of Pakistan since 1947 and systematic brainwashing of the people, there is a strong resentment against Islamabad; and people as a last resort, may be inclined to pick up arms, as people of the Indian occupied Kashmir have done.
2/ Gilgit Baltistan is a disputed territory, and is part of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir. India claims this territory belongs to them, because the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India. Not many people take this claim seriously because, the parts of Jammu and Kashmir State under the control of India is also considered as disputed.
In any case, India only pays lip service to its claim that territory of Gilgit Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir belongs to them; and practically takes no steps to get these areas back. Moreover, India doesn't seem to be concerned about plight of the people who live here. If New Delhi seriously and sincerely regarded these people as their own people, then they would not sit idle and allow innocent people to suffer.
3/ Interests of other countries in Gilgit Baltistan must not be overlooked. Because of great strategic location of this region and abundance natural resources, countries like India, America, Russia, and to some extent, Central Asian countries may not like China's military control and hegemony of this region. Already there is a strong Chinese military presence in Gilgit Baltistan; and the CPEC will provide an excuse to increase its military strength to protect its enormous investment.
This will surely enable China to protect the CPEC route; but essentially it will empower China to check and stop infiltration of Islamic Jihadi warriors who go to the Chinese troubled region of Xinjiang. China believes that Pakistani Jihadi groups who have bases in FATA and other parts of Pakistan and Gilgit Baltistan train jihadi militants and send them to China to support and lead the insurgency. Under garb of the CPEC projects and security, China will be in a position to check and monitor movements of these elements.
Furthermore, China will be in a position to counter any American or Indian move to change the status quo in Gilgit Baltistan. This move, if it comes, could well be a joint initiative of more than one country; and one can envisage consequences and significance of such move.
China knows very well that Gilgit Baltistan is a disputed territory; and Pakistan has no legal right to annex these areas, or go against the expressed sentiments of the local people. Although China does not care about sentiments of the people inside the country, but they do seem to comprehend power of the local people. It is believed that apart from investment in infrastructure, they are investing in the local politics of Gilgit Baltistan, hence some voices that Gilgit Baltistan can accede to China. This is not to suggest that China has become a democratic and caring country. They are helping Pakistan to silence dissent in Gilgit Baltistan and in Balochistan, as this will help both countries to exploit natural resources of both regions.
What leaders of Gilgit Baltistan say
It must also be noted that the situation on the Chinese side is also less than satisfactory. There is an armed insurgency going on in Sinkiang against the Chinese government; and it is because of this the Chinese have hired services of the world notorious private terrorist army – Blackwater to protect the CPEC route inside the Chinese territory.
‘Frontier Services Group (FSG), a company that helps businesses operating in frontier markets to overcome complex security, logistics and operational challenges, plans to build two operational bases in Northwest China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and Southwest China's Yunnan Province, Erik Prince, executive chairman of the firm, told the Chinese Tabloid “Global Times”. 1
Resentment of the local people against Pakistani moves in Gilgit Baltistan could be gauged from statements of different pro freedom leaders from the region. Abdul Hamid Khan, the Chairman of the Balawaristan National Front, and a senior leader from Gilgit-Baltistan said:
“If referendum happens people will vote for India, they never committed atrocities on us. Pakistan imposed war on us, India never occupied our land, Pakistan's coward army gave Siachen to India”. While referring to the CPEC, he said, “People are aware Gilgit-Baltistan is disputed, by arresting few, you (Pakistan) think CPEC will be built, 42 billion will be in your pockets, it's a dream.” 2
Abdul Hamid Khan angrily said, “If you think by arresting 10-15 people, you will be able to suppress our movement against CPEC, it is your dream. If Pakistan thinks that the Army and the ISI will crush people and make CPEC a reality by occupying Gilgit-Baltistan, it is nothing but day-dreaming…People are aware that Gilgit-Baltistan is disputed. The world knows that atrocities are committed on us.” 3
There are reports that land is acquired illegally and without paying any compensation to the local people for the CPEC projects; and this is adding to the resentment of the suffering people. Sad thing is, if people complain or protest against this injustice, they are accused of being anti Pakistan and agent of India. Some unfortunate people are facing sedition charges.
Senge Hasnan Sering, is a human rights activist and works for The Foundation for Democracy and Rule of Law for Regions in Conflict says:
“China has a huge and long-term presence in Gilgit-Baltistan and is building extensive roads, bridges and telecom networks to sustain it. The drives compelling China to develop Karakoram Corridor are diverse and mainly pertain to its economic, strategic and political ambitions.” 4
Many thinking people and experts firmly believe that there is a strong military aspect concealed under the garb of economic development project. Gwadar port is controlled and managed by the Chinese, and their military ships provide security. Also, there is a joint naval task force to secure the port and naval trade routes.
Furthermore, there is a construction of an army headquarters in Gilgit Baltistan; and regional headquarters for secret agencies of Pakistan, which will make life difficult for the local people. There will surely be more harassment and intimidation and human rights abuses in Gilgit Baltistan. Already human rights activists and political workers belonging to different parties face immense pressure and are subject to torture, imprisonment; and some face sedition charges.
In 1963 China and Pakistan concluded an agreement in which it was clearly recognised that Gilgit Baltistan was a disputed territory. In this agreement Pakistan transferred around 2000 Sq. miles of Gilgit Baltistan territory, Shaksgam Valley to China which enabled China to create a link with Aqsai Chin, which they occupied in a war with in India in 1962.
In return, China agreed to construct the Karakorum Highway to link the both countries; and which was to play a significant role in relations between Beijing and Islamabad. Both countries have many common goals; and both have been rubbing each other's backs to advance the common agenda. However, both governments understood the disputed nature of Gilgit Baltistan and agreed that if another government was to become a legal owner of Jammu and Kashmir State, including Gilgit Baltistan, then China will negotiate the new terms with the new government about future of Shaksgam Valley. Article 6 of the Agreement clearly states:
‘The two parties have agreed that after the settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the sovereign authority concerned will reopen negotiations with the Government of the People's Republic of China on the boundary as described in Article. Two of the present agreement, so as to sign a formal boundary treaty to replace the present agreement, provided that in the event of the sovereign authority being Pakistan, the provisions of the present agreement and of the aforesaid protocol shall be maintained in the formal boundary treaty to be signed between the People's Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan'. 5
Writer is a political analyst, TV anchor and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Chairman South Asia Watch and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
References:
- http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/if-referendum-happens-people-of-gilgit-baltistan-will-vote-for-india-abdul-hamid-khan/647201/
- http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/pak-s-dream-of-building-cpec-will-never-come-true-senior-gilgit-leader-117042900526_1.html
- https://thenorthlines.com/chinas-two-prong-strategy-gilgit-baltistan/
- China and Pakistan Agreement 1963, signed by Pakistani Foreign Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Chinese Foreign Minister Chen Yi, in March 1963
- http://zeenews.india.com/india/kashmiris-protest-pakistans-move-to-declare-gilgit-baltistan-fifth-province-2002295.html
- Ibid
- https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/04/25/china-bails-out-pakistan-with-over-1bn-in-loans.html
- Ibid
- https://tribune.com.pk/story/1404569/moodys-says-pakistans-external-debt-will-increase-79-billion-june-end/
- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/china-offers-to-rename-china-pakistan-economic-corridor/articleshow/58579096.cms?utm_source=ETnotifications&utm_medium=autopush&utm_campaign=Politics+and+Nation&utm_content=10PM
